Predators & Flyers engaged in high-stakes gamble

To match, or not to match, that is the question.

Well, there is one more, actually.

One possible result of the Shea Weber drama would involve a deal between the Nashville Predators and Philadelphia Flyers, in which the Preds would agree not to match the offer sheet, in exchange for trading some of the draft picks coming over from Philly in exchange for roster players. It's a tricky situation, but not entirely unprecedented. Might it apply here?

Travis Hughes of Broad Street Hockey & I recenlty teamed up to talk through the scenarios involved in the latest SB Nation video:

Follow @Forechecker

Now that we've had a day or so to chew over the possibilities, I think it's time we opened up the polls...

Poll

What do you think will happen with Shea Weber and the Flyer's Offer Sheet?

• Nashville will match the offer and keep him
• Nashville will not match, take the draft picks
• Nashville will not match & work out trade for players from Philly

  900 votes | Results

Brian McGrattan's ready for his biggest scrap yet: Saturday's notes

Congratulations to Nashville Predators enforcer Brian McGrattan, who has some big plans for this weekend:

getting married today!!!!!!

— brian mcgrattan (@bigern10) July 21, 2012

I wonder if his tux will have a tie-down strap in the back?

How fitting that McGrattan shared this news via Twitter, as one of your morning hockey notes touches on how popular that social media platform is among the Preds...

Nashville Predators News

22 Years Later, David Poile Faces Scott Stevens Redux - SB Nation DC
Take a trip back in time to when Poile, as Washington GM, let Scott Stevens go via an offer sheet. Look on the bright side, at least Shea Weber's not involved in a rape scandal.

What to do about Weber? | The Predatorial
James points out the difficulties of playing the blame game.

What Shea Weber’s offer sheet says about Chris Pronger (Trending Topics) | Puck Daddy
Somewhat overlooked in all this is the unofficial finality that Philadelphia's offer sheet means for the career of one the great defensemen of the last 20 years.

The Hippodrome: The Shea of Reckoning | Pith in the Wind
J.R.'s a season ticket holder and wants a refund, dammit!

Younger Preds are all a-Twitter | The Tennessean
Have you heard about this new-fangled "Twitter" thing? Apparently it's popular with the hockey players...

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

Jessica Redfield killed in Aurora theater shooting - Denver Post
Adrian Dater shares his memories of talking with Jessica as she went about working her way into the world of sports journalism.

Why NHL teams cry poor despite the league’s record growth - The Globe and Mail
James Mirtle argues hockey is suffering from an owner versus owner problem.

NHLPA says NHL owners want to cut salaries despite record revenues - NYPOST.com
According to a memo obtained from the players' side, the owners' initial proposal would actually knock the players' share down to more like 43% of revenues, not 46% (presumably due to changes in the definition of "Hockey Related Revenue").

NHL, NHLPA discuss 'technical matters' as labor talks continue - ESPN
More "good dialogue" going on.

2012 NHL Rumors: Shane Doan Reportedly Meeting With The Rangers Today - Blueshirt Banter
He's the top remaining forward on the UFA market, so expect a bit of a tour.

RFAs and Offer Sheets - A Look Back | The Hockey Writers
Here's a solid review of offer sheet activity over the years.

Gagner and the Oilers Agree On a One-Year Contract - The Copper & Blue
One year, $3.2 million for the Edmonton center.

T.J. Oshie, St. Louis Blues avoid arbitration with 5-year extension | Puck Daddy
This is an important deal for the Blues, committing one of their best young players for a long time.

Anaheim Ducks bolster depth, signing Daniel Winnik to 2-year deal - The Globe and Mail
From NoCal to SoCal, Winnik finds a new gig in Anaheim.

New Jersey Devils Re-Sign Mark Fayne to 2 Year, $2.6 Million Contract - In Lou We Trust
John's so giddy over this one that he couldn't resist forcing a pun.

Uni Watch " Dear Mr. Stern
Will ads start appearing on NBA jerseys soon? And if so, how long would it be before they made it to the NHL?

Glitch | Backhand Shelf
Get your head on a swivel, E!

Defencemen leave the Central Division en masse | Backhand Shelf
Lidstrom, Stuart, and Suter so far... anyone else of significance (read: top-4 caliber)?

The Shea Weber Offer Sheet Situation: What We Know

So... who's ready for a drink?

It's been a whirlwind type of day, with interesting tidbits coming out from various media outlets, so let's parse through the main items and see where the Nashville Predators stand vis-a-vis Shea Weber.

Weber toured Flyers' facility

This one got folks worked up:

Shea Weber spent quite a bit of time with the Flyers' brass in Philly and toured facilities two weeks ago.

— Frank Seravalli (@DNFlyers) July 19, 2012

My take: While this is news, it's not surprising. If a team is going to sign a guy to a $110 million, 14-year contract, you'd expect some serious face-to-face time. The Tennessean is reporting that he also visited with the Sharks, Rangers and Red Wings, too. Since he's a free agent, he can speak with whomever he likes these days.

Weber's agent implies he doesn't want to play in Nashville

This got a lot of run today, with comments from Shea Weber's agent Jarrett Bousquet talking how great it would be for him to play in Philadelphia:

Interview w/Shea Weber's agent on TSN (mp3)

Heck, you know me - I've called Weber's commitment to the Predators into question for a long while now. Still, I wouldn't look at these comments as portents of doom.

The situation I keep coming back to is the Detroit Red Wings with Sergei Fedorov back in 1997/1998. Despite having just won a Stanley Cup, Fedorov held out on the Red Wings, well into the next season, and ultimately signed an offer sheet with Carolina that was much more "predatory" than this one here with Weber (it included a $14 million balloon payment if Fedorov played in the Conference Final that season, a poison pill designed for Detroit). Along the way, Fedorov let it be known that he didn't want to play for Detroit any more, either.

Once the Red Wings matched the offer sheet, however, everyone got back to business. The Wings defended their Cup in '98, and won another one in 2002. Even Bousquet in this interview admits that if the Preds match the deal, then Shea & the team will get back to the business of winning hockey games.

The bottom line is that Weber would not have signed this 14-year offer sheet if he weren't comfortable with the idea of playing it out here in Nashville, given the considerable likelihood of the Preds matching it.

Nashville & Philadelphia could work out a trade

While for the current time the Predators are locked into a "match the offer or not" decision, there is an alternative scenario which could play out immediately afterward. The Preds could reach an agreement with the Flyers not to match the offer sheet, but then work out a trade involving some of those four 1st-round draft picks that would come to Nashville as compensation. For Philly's Paul Holmgren, that might be a dream come true - the chance to land Weber, and send some salary out the door to clear cap space at the same time.

The Preds & Flyers do have a history of working out deals together, but once those Philly 1st-rounders are in hand, who's to say that Philadelphia is the best trade partner with which to deal those assets? That sounds like more of a face-saving scenario to me, rather than working out the best hockey situation moving forward. Do you really want to see Andrej Meszaros introduced at this summer's Skate of the Union?

Still, it's something that could be discussed while the Predators take their time coming to a decision. There's no harm in exploring the various options.

Does the Offer Sheet contain a No Trade Clause?

ESPN's Scott Burnside floated this notion...

Under the terms of the CBA, the Predators cannot trade Weber for a calendar year after matching the offer sheet, and a year from now, when Weber would have become an unrestricted free agent, a no-move, no-trade clause kicks in.

While the bit about the first calendar year is true, the no-move, no-trade part flies in the face of the rules regarding Offer Sheets & RFA's.

Quoth the CBA, Chapter 10 Verse 3 (emphasis mine):

(b) If the Prior Club gives the Restricted Free Agent and his Certified Agent, if any, notice, in accordance with Exhibit 3 hereto, that it is exercising its Right of First Refusal (a "First Refusal Exercise Notice"), such notice to be substantially in the form of Exhibit 7 attached hereto, to the Player's and his Certified Agent's, if any, address or facsimile number listed on the Offer Sheet, if any, within the seven (7) day period, such Restricted Free Agent and the Prior Club shall be deemed to have entered into a binding agreement, which they shall promptly formalize in an SPC, containing: (i) all the Principal Terms (subject to subsection (e) below); and (ii) such additional terms as may be agreed upon between the Restricted Free Agent and the Prior Club. The Prior Club may not Trade that Restricted Free Agent for a period of one year from the date it exercises its Right of First Refusal.

...

(e) For the purposes of this Article, the Principal Terms of an Offer Sheet are limited to the term, Paragraph 1 Salary and Signing Bonus and Reporting Bonus the New Club offers to the Restricted Free Agent (currently and/or as Deferred Compensation in specified installments on specified dates) in consideration for his services as a hockey Player under the SPC.

So, the Principal Terms in the Offer Sheet are about the years and the money. The Predators, if they wish to match, must register a contract matching those Principal Terms, along with anything else they wish to negotiate with Weber themselves (the Predators are the "Prior Club" noted in this case). The Flyers could include a NTC in their offer sheet, but the Preds apparently don't have to match that.

Waiting on the Weber decision: Friday's notes

Nashville Predators fans can now only watch and wait to see what happens on the Shea Weber front. The facts are all out there, and now it's time for deliberations behind the closed doors of 501 Broadway. If you spot white smoke coming out of the top of Bridgestone Arena, maybe that will be our signal when a decision has been reached.

Until then, follow after the jump for your morning hockey notes, which of course have more on this situation...

Nashville Predators News

In addition to these stories, surf through the "More Predators Sites" box on the main page, everybody has something to offer on the Weber situation, of course.

A World Without Weber - Predlines
Link ponders bigger changes if the captain leaves town.

Weber offer sheet: circumvention of the CBA? _/ . MCSORLEY'S STICK
What do you think about the contract Philly has proposed?

Does the Predators Golden Age Grow Dark So Soon? - Predneck Nation
I'd hope the Golden Age is still ahead of this team, and not already behind it.

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

Callahan: Snider all about winning now | The News Journal | delawareonline.com
Simply put, the Flyers mean business. Found via Kukla's Korner.

Shea Weber's offer-sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers feels awfully familiar - Raw Charge
John recalls a time when the Flyers came after a young Tampa Bay star with an offer sheet...

From the archives: Interview with Bobby Clarke | Illegal Curve Hockey
Terrific insight here from the former Philadelphia GM on the practice of extending offer sheets.

Spector on Predators: Compete or die - sportsnet.ca
Dramatic stuff here, but I hope it's printed and posted on the walls inside the offices at Bridgestone Arena.

How long will Shea Weber play? - Broad Street Hockey
Is it reasonable to expect the captain to play at an elite level well into his late 30's?

An Open Letter to the Niagara Falls Reporter - Pension Plan Puppets
Holy cow, what a troglodyte this guy is, linking the "You Can Play" initiative with the anti-fighting movement in hockey.

Stolen ‘Slapshot’-inspired sheep recovered after thief posts photo on Instagram | Puck Daddy
Well, here's something you don't see every day.

I Picked a Hell of a Day to Be Born: A Birthday Request

Almost two hours ago, I completed my thirty-second trip around the sun. I was wide-awake last night when TSN's Darren Dreger broke the news that Preds captain Shea Weber had signed a massive offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers -- the details of which are just beginning to surface. Talk about a bizarre way to kick off 32.... Add to it all that I woke up to see Jordin Tootoo, who I profiled here recently, in a Detroit Red Wings sweater, and I'm just not sure what to make of today!

But I'd like to impose on OTF readers today, and ask you for a birthday gift (while David Poile works on giving Shea Weber $110 million for my birthday).

I started a blogging tradition a couple years ago of asking people to give money to charity for my birthday, and this year it's great to have a platform like OTF to make this ask (thanks again, Dirk!).

Please join me this year by clicking here to give $32 (or a gift of your choice) to the Predators Foundation.

Many of you are already aware of the great work this organization does in the Music City, but here's a partial list of organizations that have received grants from the Foundation, organizations that make the Foundation's work worthwhile to me:

• Adventure Science Center (formerly the Cumberland Science Museum)
• Best Buddies Tennessee (with whom head coach Barry Trotz regularly volunteers)
• Cumberland Heights
• Fannie Battle Day Home for Children
• Gilda's Club Nashville
• High Hopes, Inc.
• Nashville Area Habitat for Humanity
• Nashville Zoo
• Oasis Center
• Read to Succeed
• Ronald McDonald House Charities of Nashville
• St. Luke's Community House
• Tennessee Wildlife Federation

I have donated both time and resources to nearly all of these organizations, so I'll vouch for all of them if you'd rather direct your donation to a specific charity.

All of us will be waiting with bated breath to see where the Weber offer sheet and ongoing CBA negotiation chips fall. But other people don't have that luxury -- so I hope you'll consider giving to the Predators Foundation, or volunteering with one of these organizations.

Thanks, and GO PREDS! #summersucksdropthepuck

Shea Weber Agrees to 14 Year Offer Sheet from Philadelphia; Nashville Has 7 Days to Match

Wow:

Breaking: Shea Weber agrees to offer sheet with Philadelphia. 14 years, upwards of $100 mil. Preds have 7 days to match. Wow!!

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 19, 2012

Nashville was working on a trade and its believed several deadlines passed before Flyers grew tired of waiting. Weber signed offer sheet.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 19, 2012

If the Predators don't match, they get four first round picks, which would be hugely disappointing.

If however the Predators have the money and willingness to match, it seems like Philly did a huge favor to Nashville. As Dirk outlined, a one year offersheet would force the Predators to let Weber walk to unrestricted free agency. If the Predators match this offer, they are guaranteed to have their captained locked up in Nashville for the rest of his career.

I don't think it's too much of an exaggeration to say that this is the defining moment of this young franchise. David Poile and Barry Trotz have been talking about how the Predators are being primed to be a cap-ceiling team. Time to put your money where your mouth is, everyone. Match. Do it.

Update: OK some more thoughts... First I don't believe that Shea wants out. If he did, why would he risk being stuck in Nashville for 14 years? Some are suggesting the Preds should match and trade him after the first year of the new contract, but I see that as the least likely scenario, ASSUMING they don't go broke by the second year.

The only way I see Nashville not matching is if there's no limit to upfront money and Philly front-loaded this thing with crazy signing bonuses, making it financially impossible for Preds ownership. Let's hope that's not the case. If it's only somewhat front-loaded, then the contract is basically what Suter got, which the Preds were supposedly willing to match.

Update 2: Final thoughts... Management has told us fans the following things:

1. They want to keep Shea Weber.
2. They think Shea wants to stay.
3. They will match any offer sheet.
4. They had the money to match Suter's best offer.
5. They have the money to be a cap team.

It'll be a PR disaster if they don't match. So match!

Time has come for the Nashville Predators to put up or shut up: Thursday's notes

Well well well... that's what I get for going to bed at 11:30. The Shea Weber offer sheet business blew up shortly before midnight last night, leaving fans with a boatload of questions - can the Predators match? Should they match, considering their captain just signed an offer sheet? Does Weber really want to be here?

At first blush, to me it looks like Philadelphia did the Predators a huge favor here, setting up a contract of "14 years, upwards of $100 mil" per TSN's Darren Dreger. As difficult as it might be, the Preds simply have to match this offer and keep their captain in the fold.

History shows us a few good examples of key players on teams receiving offer sheets like this, which the team matched and went on to have success together, so unless Weber is flat-out demanding a ticket out of town, the Nashville Predators simply must match this deal, as onerous as it probably will be in the short term.

Joe Sakic, 1997

The New York Rangers signed Sakic to a 3-year, $21 million with $17 million of it paid in the first year, but Colorado matched the deal and both sides lived happily ever after.

Sergei Fedorov, 1998

Just months after helping the Red Wings win the 1997 Stanley Cup, Fedorov holds out as a Restricted Free Agent, well into the next season. The Carolina Hurricanes eventually ink him to a 6-year, $38 million deal, which included a provision (not allowed now) of a $12 million bonus if his team reached the conference final that year, something the Red Wings were likely to do, but not the Canes. Mike Ilitch didn't hesitate to match the deal, and Detroit went on to repeat as Cup champs that season (Fedorov earned $28 million for playing less than half that season), and add another with Fedorov in 2002 before parting ways the next year.

So yes, Virginia, Shea Weber & the Nashville Predators can have a long, happy career together, if the Preds can get the money together to match what is likely to be a king's ransom in the early stages of this contract.

But you know what? It's worth it. Weber is one of the handful of consistently elite players in this league, and if there's any way Nashville can lock him up long-term, they have to do it.

Now, let's see if there's anything else going on in the hockey world this morning...

Nashville Predators News

Wake up! Right now! Paul Holmgren sends Shea Weber 14-year, $100 million offer sheet - Broad Street Hockey
Check out the Philly side of the discussion...

Philadelphia Sabotages Shea Weber Trade with Offer Sheet - Habs Eyes On The Prize
Bruce argues that perhaps Philly did this to prevent other teams from getting Weber in trade.

Klein: "I love Nashville" - Predators Insider
Kevin Klein is due to be a UFA next summer, and I think people might be shocked at what he could command on the open market.

Smashville 24/7 - What’s the toughest arena to play in?
Shame on Ryan for not introducing this post in classic Richard Dawson "Family Feud" style. "Top six answers are on the board... here's the question. We polled 100 NHL players about the toughest arenas to play in... SURVEY SAYS!"

Is Trading For Shea Weber Worth It? | Overtime
In a hilarious bit of timing & luck, yesterday I wrote about Weber getting an offer sheet, while Sam wrote about him being traded (at least Sam got the team right).

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

NHL states desire to settle CBA talks by Sept. 15 - NHL.com
Cordiality continues to rule the day.

NHL labor talks resume as players ponder league's proposal - ESPN
More on yesterday's session between the owners and players.

An Afternoon With Former Avalanche Enforcer Scott Parker: Part 2 - Mile High Hockey
This is absolutely must-read stuff, the most entertaining interview with a hockey player I've seen in a LOOOOOOONG time. And the bit about goats... that's just killer.

An Open Letter to the Niagara Falls Reporter - Pension Plan Puppets
Holy cow, what a troglodyte this guy is, linking the "You Can Play" initiative with the anti-fighting movement in hockey.

Puckhead's Thoughts: Calle Johansson Tapped As Assistant Coach
I'm just including this so J.R. Lind will feel compelled to pump this post via social media.

Why the Anaheim Ducks Will Bounce Back Next Season - The Hockey Writers
I tell ya, I really like the hiring of Bruce Boudreau there.

Kyle Quincey Re-Signs with Red Wings for Two Years, Avoids Arbitration - Winging It In Motown
Well, they couldn't land Ryan Suter, and they already let Brad Stuart go, so they had to sign somebody.

Accounting for Teammates Part 1: Corsi Rel and WOWY | NHLNumbers.com
Context, kids, it's important.

Improving AHL Equivalencies: AHL to NHL Shot Metrics Translations | NHLNumbers.com
I really, really, really dig what's being done here. As a one-off piece, I looked at shots-per-game totals for Patric Hornqvist going back to his days in the Swedish Elite League, which showed him to be a shotmeister of the highest order, even back then.

Introducing the Whalers Meter - Hockey Wilderness
OK, this is funny.

CCM & TaylorMade's new RBZ hockey stick available for pre-order | Hockey Gear HQ
We all know the great iconic hockey brands found in every locker room: CCM, Bauer, Easton, Reebok, etc. But TaylorMade? What does a golf club company have to do with hockey? Quite a lot now, thanks to a new joint venture...

Rec Hockey Tips: Come back to the puck already, forwards | Backhand Shelf
There isn't much out there more annoying than some guy floating up near the blueline like a freaking weather balloon.