Predators & Flyers engaged in high-stakes gamble

To match, or not to match, that is the question.

Well, there is one more, actually.

One possible result of the Shea Weber drama would involve a deal between the Nashville Predators and Philadelphia Flyers, in which the Preds would agree not to match the offer sheet, in exchange for trading some of the draft picks coming over from Philly in exchange for roster players. It's a tricky situation, but not entirely unprecedented. Might it apply here?

Travis Hughes of Broad Street Hockey & I recenlty teamed up to talk through the scenarios involved in the latest SB Nation video:

Follow @Forechecker

Now that we've had a day or so to chew over the possibilities, I think it's time we opened up the polls...

Poll

What do you think will happen with Shea Weber and the Flyer's Offer Sheet?

• Nashville will match the offer and keep him
• Nashville will not match, take the draft picks
• Nashville will not match & work out trade for players from Philly

  900 votes | Results

Brian McGrattan's ready for his biggest scrap yet: Saturday's notes

Congratulations to Nashville Predators enforcer Brian McGrattan, who has some big plans for this weekend:

getting married today!!!!!!

— brian mcgrattan (@bigern10) July 21, 2012

I wonder if his tux will have a tie-down strap in the back?

How fitting that McGrattan shared this news via Twitter, as one of your morning hockey notes touches on how popular that social media platform is among the Preds...

Nashville Predators News

22 Years Later, David Poile Faces Scott Stevens Redux - SB Nation DC
Take a trip back in time to when Poile, as Washington GM, let Scott Stevens go via an offer sheet. Look on the bright side, at least Shea Weber's not involved in a rape scandal.

What to do about Weber? | The Predatorial
James points out the difficulties of playing the blame game.

What Shea Weber’s offer sheet says about Chris Pronger (Trending Topics) | Puck Daddy
Somewhat overlooked in all this is the unofficial finality that Philadelphia's offer sheet means for the career of one the great defensemen of the last 20 years.

The Hippodrome: The Shea of Reckoning | Pith in the Wind
J.R.'s a season ticket holder and wants a refund, dammit!

Younger Preds are all a-Twitter | The Tennessean
Have you heard about this new-fangled "Twitter" thing? Apparently it's popular with the hockey players...

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

Jessica Redfield killed in Aurora theater shooting - Denver Post
Adrian Dater shares his memories of talking with Jessica as she went about working her way into the world of sports journalism.

Why NHL teams cry poor despite the league’s record growth - The Globe and Mail
James Mirtle argues hockey is suffering from an owner versus owner problem.

NHLPA says NHL owners want to cut salaries despite record revenues - NYPOST.com
According to a memo obtained from the players' side, the owners' initial proposal would actually knock the players' share down to more like 43% of revenues, not 46% (presumably due to changes in the definition of "Hockey Related Revenue").

NHL, NHLPA discuss 'technical matters' as labor talks continue - ESPN
More "good dialogue" going on.

2012 NHL Rumors: Shane Doan Reportedly Meeting With The Rangers Today - Blueshirt Banter
He's the top remaining forward on the UFA market, so expect a bit of a tour.

RFAs and Offer Sheets - A Look Back | The Hockey Writers
Here's a solid review of offer sheet activity over the years.

Gagner and the Oilers Agree On a One-Year Contract - The Copper & Blue
One year, $3.2 million for the Edmonton center.

T.J. Oshie, St. Louis Blues avoid arbitration with 5-year extension | Puck Daddy
This is an important deal for the Blues, committing one of their best young players for a long time.

Anaheim Ducks bolster depth, signing Daniel Winnik to 2-year deal - The Globe and Mail
From NoCal to SoCal, Winnik finds a new gig in Anaheim.

New Jersey Devils Re-Sign Mark Fayne to 2 Year, $2.6 Million Contract - In Lou We Trust
John's so giddy over this one that he couldn't resist forcing a pun.

Uni Watch " Dear Mr. Stern
Will ads start appearing on NBA jerseys soon? And if so, how long would it be before they made it to the NHL?

Glitch | Backhand Shelf
Get your head on a swivel, E!

Defencemen leave the Central Division en masse | Backhand Shelf
Lidstrom, Stuart, and Suter so far... anyone else of significance (read: top-4 caliber)?

The Shea Weber Offer Sheet Situation: What We Know

So... who's ready for a drink?

It's been a whirlwind type of day, with interesting tidbits coming out from various media outlets, so let's parse through the main items and see where the Nashville Predators stand vis-a-vis Shea Weber.

Weber toured Flyers' facility

This one got folks worked up:

Shea Weber spent quite a bit of time with the Flyers' brass in Philly and toured facilities two weeks ago.

— Frank Seravalli (@DNFlyers) July 19, 2012

My take: While this is news, it's not surprising. If a team is going to sign a guy to a $110 million, 14-year contract, you'd expect some serious face-to-face time. The Tennessean is reporting that he also visited with the Sharks, Rangers and Red Wings, too. Since he's a free agent, he can speak with whomever he likes these days.

Weber's agent implies he doesn't want to play in Nashville

This got a lot of run today, with comments from Shea Weber's agent Jarrett Bousquet talking how great it would be for him to play in Philadelphia:

Interview w/Shea Weber's agent on TSN (mp3)

Heck, you know me - I've called Weber's commitment to the Predators into question for a long while now. Still, I wouldn't look at these comments as portents of doom.

The situation I keep coming back to is the Detroit Red Wings with Sergei Fedorov back in 1997/1998. Despite having just won a Stanley Cup, Fedorov held out on the Red Wings, well into the next season, and ultimately signed an offer sheet with Carolina that was much more "predatory" than this one here with Weber (it included a $14 million balloon payment if Fedorov played in the Conference Final that season, a poison pill designed for Detroit). Along the way, Fedorov let it be known that he didn't want to play for Detroit any more, either.

Once the Red Wings matched the offer sheet, however, everyone got back to business. The Wings defended their Cup in '98, and won another one in 2002. Even Bousquet in this interview admits that if the Preds match the deal, then Shea & the team will get back to the business of winning hockey games.

The bottom line is that Weber would not have signed this 14-year offer sheet if he weren't comfortable with the idea of playing it out here in Nashville, given the considerable likelihood of the Preds matching it.

Nashville & Philadelphia could work out a trade

While for the current time the Predators are locked into a "match the offer or not" decision, there is an alternative scenario which could play out immediately afterward. The Preds could reach an agreement with the Flyers not to match the offer sheet, but then work out a trade involving some of those four 1st-round draft picks that would come to Nashville as compensation. For Philly's Paul Holmgren, that might be a dream come true - the chance to land Weber, and send some salary out the door to clear cap space at the same time.

The Preds & Flyers do have a history of working out deals together, but once those Philly 1st-rounders are in hand, who's to say that Philadelphia is the best trade partner with which to deal those assets? That sounds like more of a face-saving scenario to me, rather than working out the best hockey situation moving forward. Do you really want to see Andrej Meszaros introduced at this summer's Skate of the Union?

Still, it's something that could be discussed while the Predators take their time coming to a decision. There's no harm in exploring the various options.

Does the Offer Sheet contain a No Trade Clause?

ESPN's Scott Burnside floated this notion...

Under the terms of the CBA, the Predators cannot trade Weber for a calendar year after matching the offer sheet, and a year from now, when Weber would have become an unrestricted free agent, a no-move, no-trade clause kicks in.

While the bit about the first calendar year is true, the no-move, no-trade part flies in the face of the rules regarding Offer Sheets & RFA's.

Quoth the CBA, Chapter 10 Verse 3 (emphasis mine):

(b) If the Prior Club gives the Restricted Free Agent and his Certified Agent, if any, notice, in accordance with Exhibit 3 hereto, that it is exercising its Right of First Refusal (a "First Refusal Exercise Notice"), such notice to be substantially in the form of Exhibit 7 attached hereto, to the Player's and his Certified Agent's, if any, address or facsimile number listed on the Offer Sheet, if any, within the seven (7) day period, such Restricted Free Agent and the Prior Club shall be deemed to have entered into a binding agreement, which they shall promptly formalize in an SPC, containing: (i) all the Principal Terms (subject to subsection (e) below); and (ii) such additional terms as may be agreed upon between the Restricted Free Agent and the Prior Club. The Prior Club may not Trade that Restricted Free Agent for a period of one year from the date it exercises its Right of First Refusal.

...

(e) For the purposes of this Article, the Principal Terms of an Offer Sheet are limited to the term, Paragraph 1 Salary and Signing Bonus and Reporting Bonus the New Club offers to the Restricted Free Agent (currently and/or as Deferred Compensation in specified installments on specified dates) in consideration for his services as a hockey Player under the SPC.

So, the Principal Terms in the Offer Sheet are about the years and the money. The Predators, if they wish to match, must register a contract matching those Principal Terms, along with anything else they wish to negotiate with Weber themselves (the Predators are the "Prior Club" noted in this case). The Flyers could include a NTC in their offer sheet, but the Preds apparently don't have to match that.

Waiting on the Weber decision: Friday's notes

Nashville Predators fans can now only watch and wait to see what happens on the Shea Weber front. The facts are all out there, and now it's time for deliberations behind the closed doors of 501 Broadway. If you spot white smoke coming out of the top of Bridgestone Arena, maybe that will be our signal when a decision has been reached.

Until then, follow after the jump for your morning hockey notes, which of course have more on this situation...

Nashville Predators News

In addition to these stories, surf through the "More Predators Sites" box on the main page, everybody has something to offer on the Weber situation, of course.

A World Without Weber - Predlines
Link ponders bigger changes if the captain leaves town.

Weber offer sheet: circumvention of the CBA? _/ . MCSORLEY'S STICK
What do you think about the contract Philly has proposed?

Does the Predators Golden Age Grow Dark So Soon? - Predneck Nation
I'd hope the Golden Age is still ahead of this team, and not already behind it.

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

Callahan: Snider all about winning now | The News Journal | delawareonline.com
Simply put, the Flyers mean business. Found via Kukla's Korner.

Shea Weber's offer-sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers feels awfully familiar - Raw Charge
John recalls a time when the Flyers came after a young Tampa Bay star with an offer sheet...

From the archives: Interview with Bobby Clarke | Illegal Curve Hockey
Terrific insight here from the former Philadelphia GM on the practice of extending offer sheets.

Spector on Predators: Compete or die - sportsnet.ca
Dramatic stuff here, but I hope it's printed and posted on the walls inside the offices at Bridgestone Arena.

How long will Shea Weber play? - Broad Street Hockey
Is it reasonable to expect the captain to play at an elite level well into his late 30's?

An Open Letter to the Niagara Falls Reporter - Pension Plan Puppets
Holy cow, what a troglodyte this guy is, linking the "You Can Play" initiative with the anti-fighting movement in hockey.

Stolen ‘Slapshot’-inspired sheep recovered after thief posts photo on Instagram | Puck Daddy
Well, here's something you don't see every day.

I Picked a Hell of a Day to Be Born: A Birthday Request

Almost two hours ago, I completed my thirty-second trip around the sun. I was wide-awake last night when TSN's Darren Dreger broke the news that Preds captain Shea Weber had signed a massive offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers -- the details of which are just beginning to surface. Talk about a bizarre way to kick off 32.... Add to it all that I woke up to see Jordin Tootoo, who I profiled here recently, in a Detroit Red Wings sweater, and I'm just not sure what to make of today!

But I'd like to impose on OTF readers today, and ask you for a birthday gift (while David Poile works on giving Shea Weber $110 million for my birthday).

I started a blogging tradition a couple years ago of asking people to give money to charity for my birthday, and this year it's great to have a platform like OTF to make this ask (thanks again, Dirk!).

Please join me this year by clicking here to give $32 (or a gift of your choice) to the Predators Foundation.

Many of you are already aware of the great work this organization does in the Music City, but here's a partial list of organizations that have received grants from the Foundation, organizations that make the Foundation's work worthwhile to me:

• Adventure Science Center (formerly the Cumberland Science Museum)
• Best Buddies Tennessee (with whom head coach Barry Trotz regularly volunteers)
• Cumberland Heights
• Fannie Battle Day Home for Children
• Gilda's Club Nashville
• High Hopes, Inc.
• Nashville Area Habitat for Humanity
• Nashville Zoo
• Oasis Center
• Read to Succeed
• Ronald McDonald House Charities of Nashville
• St. Luke's Community House
• Tennessee Wildlife Federation

I have donated both time and resources to nearly all of these organizations, so I'll vouch for all of them if you'd rather direct your donation to a specific charity.

All of us will be waiting with bated breath to see where the Weber offer sheet and ongoing CBA negotiation chips fall. But other people don't have that luxury -- so I hope you'll consider giving to the Predators Foundation, or volunteering with one of these organizations.

Thanks, and GO PREDS! #summersucksdropthepuck

Shea Weber Agrees to 14 Year Offer Sheet from Philadelphia; Nashville Has 7 Days to Match

Wow:

Breaking: Shea Weber agrees to offer sheet with Philadelphia. 14 years, upwards of $100 mil. Preds have 7 days to match. Wow!!

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 19, 2012

Nashville was working on a trade and its believed several deadlines passed before Flyers grew tired of waiting. Weber signed offer sheet.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 19, 2012

If the Predators don't match, they get four first round picks, which would be hugely disappointing.

If however the Predators have the money and willingness to match, it seems like Philly did a huge favor to Nashville. As Dirk outlined, a one year offersheet would force the Predators to let Weber walk to unrestricted free agency. If the Predators match this offer, they are guaranteed to have their captained locked up in Nashville for the rest of his career.

I don't think it's too much of an exaggeration to say that this is the defining moment of this young franchise. David Poile and Barry Trotz have been talking about how the Predators are being primed to be a cap-ceiling team. Time to put your money where your mouth is, everyone. Match. Do it.

Update: OK some more thoughts... First I don't believe that Shea wants out. If he did, why would he risk being stuck in Nashville for 14 years? Some are suggesting the Preds should match and trade him after the first year of the new contract, but I see that as the least likely scenario, ASSUMING they don't go broke by the second year.

The only way I see Nashville not matching is if there's no limit to upfront money and Philly front-loaded this thing with crazy signing bonuses, making it financially impossible for Preds ownership. Let's hope that's not the case. If it's only somewhat front-loaded, then the contract is basically what Suter got, which the Preds were supposedly willing to match.

Update 2: Final thoughts... Management has told us fans the following things:

1. They want to keep Shea Weber.
2. They think Shea wants to stay.
3. They will match any offer sheet.
4. They had the money to match Suter's best offer.
5. They have the money to be a cap team.

It'll be a PR disaster if they don't match. So match!

Time has come for the Nashville Predators to put up or shut up: Thursday's notes

Well well well... that's what I get for going to bed at 11:30. The Shea Weber offer sheet business blew up shortly before midnight last night, leaving fans with a boatload of questions - can the Predators match? Should they match, considering their captain just signed an offer sheet? Does Weber really want to be here?

At first blush, to me it looks like Philadelphia did the Predators a huge favor here, setting up a contract of "14 years, upwards of $100 mil" per TSN's Darren Dreger. As difficult as it might be, the Preds simply have to match this offer and keep their captain in the fold.

History shows us a few good examples of key players on teams receiving offer sheets like this, which the team matched and went on to have success together, so unless Weber is flat-out demanding a ticket out of town, the Nashville Predators simply must match this deal, as onerous as it probably will be in the short term.

Joe Sakic, 1997

The New York Rangers signed Sakic to a 3-year, $21 million with $17 million of it paid in the first year, but Colorado matched the deal and both sides lived happily ever after.

Sergei Fedorov, 1998

Just months after helping the Red Wings win the 1997 Stanley Cup, Fedorov holds out as a Restricted Free Agent, well into the next season. The Carolina Hurricanes eventually ink him to a 6-year, $38 million deal, which included a provision (not allowed now) of a $12 million bonus if his team reached the conference final that year, something the Red Wings were likely to do, but not the Canes. Mike Ilitch didn't hesitate to match the deal, and Detroit went on to repeat as Cup champs that season (Fedorov earned $28 million for playing less than half that season), and add another with Fedorov in 2002 before parting ways the next year.

So yes, Virginia, Shea Weber & the Nashville Predators can have a long, happy career together, if the Preds can get the money together to match what is likely to be a king's ransom in the early stages of this contract.

But you know what? It's worth it. Weber is one of the handful of consistently elite players in this league, and if there's any way Nashville can lock him up long-term, they have to do it.

Now, let's see if there's anything else going on in the hockey world this morning...

Nashville Predators News

Wake up! Right now! Paul Holmgren sends Shea Weber 14-year, $100 million offer sheet - Broad Street Hockey
Check out the Philly side of the discussion...

Philadelphia Sabotages Shea Weber Trade with Offer Sheet - Habs Eyes On The Prize
Bruce argues that perhaps Philly did this to prevent other teams from getting Weber in trade.

Klein: "I love Nashville" - Predators Insider
Kevin Klein is due to be a UFA next summer, and I think people might be shocked at what he could command on the open market.

Smashville 24/7 - What’s the toughest arena to play in?
Shame on Ryan for not introducing this post in classic Richard Dawson "Family Feud" style. "Top six answers are on the board... here's the question. We polled 100 NHL players about the toughest arenas to play in... SURVEY SAYS!"

Is Trading For Shea Weber Worth It? | Overtime
In a hilarious bit of timing & luck, yesterday I wrote about Weber getting an offer sheet, while Sam wrote about him being traded (at least Sam got the team right).

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

NHL states desire to settle CBA talks by Sept. 15 - NHL.com
Cordiality continues to rule the day.

NHL labor talks resume as players ponder league's proposal - ESPN
More on yesterday's session between the owners and players.

An Afternoon With Former Avalanche Enforcer Scott Parker: Part 2 - Mile High Hockey
This is absolutely must-read stuff, the most entertaining interview with a hockey player I've seen in a LOOOOOOONG time. And the bit about goats... that's just killer.

An Open Letter to the Niagara Falls Reporter - Pension Plan Puppets
Holy cow, what a troglodyte this guy is, linking the "You Can Play" initiative with the anti-fighting movement in hockey.

Puckhead's Thoughts: Calle Johansson Tapped As Assistant Coach
I'm just including this so J.R. Lind will feel compelled to pump this post via social media.

Why the Anaheim Ducks Will Bounce Back Next Season - The Hockey Writers
I tell ya, I really like the hiring of Bruce Boudreau there.

Kyle Quincey Re-Signs with Red Wings for Two Years, Avoids Arbitration - Winging It In Motown
Well, they couldn't land Ryan Suter, and they already let Brad Stuart go, so they had to sign somebody.

Accounting for Teammates Part 1: Corsi Rel and WOWY | NHLNumbers.com
Context, kids, it's important.

Improving AHL Equivalencies: AHL to NHL Shot Metrics Translations | NHLNumbers.com
I really, really, really dig what's being done here. As a one-off piece, I looked at shots-per-game totals for Patric Hornqvist going back to his days in the Swedish Elite League, which showed him to be a shotmeister of the highest order, even back then.

Introducing the Whalers Meter - Hockey Wilderness
OK, this is funny.

CCM & TaylorMade's new RBZ hockey stick available for pre-order | Hockey Gear HQ
We all know the great iconic hockey brands found in every locker room: CCM, Bauer, Easton, Reebok, etc. But TaylorMade? What does a golf club company have to do with hockey? Quite a lot now, thanks to a new joint venture...

Rec Hockey Tips: Come back to the puck already, forwards | Backhand Shelf
There isn't much out there more annoying than some guy floating up near the blueline like a freaking weather balloon.

Might a predator come after Nashville with a Shea Weber offer sheet?

If I were trapped on a desert island and had only one hockey blog/column to read (go with me here), it would be Elliotte Friedman's "30 Thoughts", a weekly feast of bite-size observations that reflect insights gleaned from contacts all over the league.

In his season finale, Friedman went into overdrive, including some insight on the Shea Weber situation that's worth digging into in detail, along with a look back to one of the highlights of Nashville's season...

Follow @Forechecker

There is a tremendous amount of quality material over there (including a plug for a book I'm reading now), so I highly recommend taking some time out of your day to enjoy the summer sendoff edition of 30 Thoughts. Heck, there's even a nod in there to one of the most exciting Preds wins of the season.

But let's get right to the Weber stuff first:

28. Shea Weber: the Predators met with Weber this week. Ultimately, they're going to have to say, "Look, we just went through this with Ryan Suter. We need an honest answer." If the response is anything less than a near-immediate signature on a long-term contract, David Poile's probably going to have to trade him -- barring severe CBA changes. Even if the owners got no free agency for 10 years (as in last week's proposal), Weber's played seven. So three more seasons is a best-case scenario for Nashville without a renewed commitment.

We've been down this road quite a bit over the last several weeks, and as you know I'm fully in the camp that says that Weber has had more than enough time to make his commitment here, it's time to work the market and see what offers might be available.

The notion that a new CBA might lock up players for 10 years before UFA status is enticing, and the chance to push this question off for a couple years would be an excellent one for the Predators. I can't imagine, however, that the NHLPA will go for the 10-year provision, and even if they did, it would likely end up involving a transition over the course of a few seasons, just as the league did in the last CBA as they moved the eligibility requirement from age 31 to 27 (see Article 10.1 (a) (i) of the CBA).

In other words, I highly doubt that at the stroke of a pen Shea Weber would lose the chance for UFA status next summer. It's no wonder that he's part of the NHLPA's negotiating team, and I'm guessing that anyone who dares voice such a suggestion in his presence risks the Zetterberg treatment.

But wait, there's more:

29. Been a lot written about a one-year, huge-money offer sheet. Think a couple of good teams have at least thought about it. Look, if you really believe getting Weber is going to mean giving up four 27th picks, he's worth it. Now, I know the counter: what if he leaves you after just one year? This is the dicey part: you almost need a nudge-nudge, wink-wink "understanding" that he's going to stay. And, if Gary Bettman finds out, he's going to CRUSH the team that does it. Google "David Stern Joe Smith Timberwolves."

30. So, if it does happen (and most GMs are skeptical), the more likely scenario is this: a team calls Poile and says, "We're going to offer sheet him if you won't make a deal." (Phil Kessel to Toronto followed this path.)

Now this is a really interesting notion. The Predators were concerned enough about the potential for an offer sheet to take Weber to arbitration last summer, and since a team only gets one chance down that road, they're left vulnerable this time around.

The nightmare scenario? Let's say Vancouver pulls off a Robert Luongo trade without significant salary coming back, and makes another move or two to free up more space (like getting anyone to take Keith Ballard off their hands). If they came in with a healthy offer sheet, you'd have to think that they'd feel confident about their ability to lock up a good Western Canada boy long-term, and would be willing to give up the four 1st-round draft picks such an offer sheet might cost in return (especially considering the assets they might get back in the moves noted above).

As Friedman notes, the idea of a one-year contract in an offer sheet is an especially difficult one for Nashville in this situation, because if a team decides to match the deal and keep the player, they may not trade him for one year.

So... the Preds could match and keep their captain, but would be powerless to get anything in return for him leaving as an unrestricted free agent in July 2013, as Ryan Suter just did.

The choice would lie between taking the four 1st-round picks, or getting one more year out of Weber and then... nothing. And it's not just Vancouver which could pull off a move like this. There are a number of teams with cap room available to make such a deal.

Faced with that conundrum, what would you do?

Report: Shea Weber offer sheet $110M, $80M in 1st 6 seasons

Sportsnet's Nick Kypreos has the breakdown of the offer sheet which the Philadelphia Flyers have agreed to with Shea Weber, and as expected, it puts the bulk of the money up-front, totaling $110 million over 14 seasons, but with $80 million of that coming in the first six:

#Preds Weber offer sheet from #Flyers. 1st 4 yrs 1M salary+13M sb; yrs 5-6 4M sal+ 8Msb; yrs 7-10 6M sal; year 11 3M sal; last 3 yrs 1M sal

Let's take a look at the year-by-year breakdown and the implications for a budget-driven Nashville Predators team...

Follow @Forechecker

So here's the breakdown, with all values in millions of dollars:

Season	Signing Bonus	Salary
2012-2013	13	1
2013-2014	13	1
2014-2015	13	1
2015-2016	13	1
2016-2017	8	4
2017-2018	8	4
2018-2019		6
2019-2020		6
2020-2021		6
2021-2022		6
2022-2023		3
2023-2024		1
2024-2025		1
2025-2026		1

The trick here is that the Signing Bonus can be payable on July 1, so for example, on whatever day this drama concludes (sometime in the next 7 days), Shea might get that first $13 million, then play the 2012-2013 season for a $1 million salary. Then, on July 1 2013, he could get the next $13 million bonus, so in the first 12 months of the contract, that's $27 million, quite a lot for the Preds to handle.

Then they get to rinse & repeat in 2014, and 2015. Things don't slow down much over the next two years, either, so for the next several seasons the Preds would have to fork out a truckload of cash.

But if the talk about spending closer to the cap is to be believed, and especially in light of having already lost Ryan Suter, the Predators should be prepared to meet these demands, right?

Right?

UPDATE: The Preds have issued the following statement from David Poile:

"We are in receipt of the offer sheet signed between the Philadelphia Flyers and Shea Weber. Under the rules pertaining to an offer sheet, the Predators have one week to decide whether to match or accept the compensation. We have stated previously that, should a team enter into an offer sheet with Shea, our intention would be to match and retain Shea. Our ownership has provided us with the necessary resources to build a Stanley Cup-winning team. Due to the complexity of the offer sheet, we will take the appropriate time to review and evaluate it and all of its ramifications in order to make the best decision for the Predators in both the short and long-term.

"We do not anticipate any further comments on this situation until we make our decision within the next seven days."

Blum works for a rebound: Wednesday's notes

A number of young players made big steps forward in their hockey careers last season for Nashville - Craig Smith, Roman Josi, Gabriel Bourque, etc.

Jonathon Blum was not one of them.

Expectations were high coming off a seemingly successful 2010-2011 debut (although there were warning signs), but before the halfway point, Blum was sent down to Milwaukee to finish the season. Can the 2007 1st-round pick turn things around fulfill his potential as a puck-moving blueliner?

Our morning hockey notes start off with an encouraging story, suggesting he's doing everything he can to work himself back into the mix...

Nashville Predators News

Nashville Predators' Jonathon Blum answers challenge to get in shape | The Tennessean
In a nice sign of commitment, Blum has shown up in Nashville early to work with the team's conditioning coach so he comes into camp well-prepared.

Familiarity brings Chris Mason back to Predators | Nashville City Paper
Mase likes the idea of playoff action.

Former backup goalie follows lead of other Preds making return trip to team | Nashville City Paper
So... look for Ramzi Abid coming back to the team any day now.

Development Camp Archives – Victor Bartley’s Evolution | The Predatorial
Does Bartley have a chance to earn some NHL action, after taking a leading role with the Admirals last season? With Cube & Hillen gone, there's an opportunity.

Shea Weber's leverage will never be higher - FS Tennessee
The potential limit on contract length might compel Weber to get a deal done this summer, before a new CBA kicks in. Note that Manasso's talk about Suter out-earning Weber in salary for next season is unlikely to be correct, because if the players' share of revenues goes down, you can bet there will be a league-wide rollback in salaries just like they did in 2005.

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

Mendes: What fans should hope for in the NHL's new CBA - Ottawa Citizen
I'd sign up for these ideas. Who's with me???

NHL ownership, union philosophies far apart - The Globe and Mail
Shocking headline, I know, but still a good read here with perspective from the ownership side.

Down Goes Brown: NHL owners' other leaked CBA demands
I like that idea of having Cam Janssen tossing money into a swear jar... talk about a way to build revenue!

Hard to take NHL's harsh offer seriously | Hockey | CBC Sports
A thoughtful, wide-ranging consideration of things from Elliotte Friedman.

Could TV deals save NHL fans from prolonged labor lockout? | Puck Daddy
This is why many think an early December start is likely, giving enough time to build up to the Winter Classic and the kickoff of national TV coverage.

Manchester United Tops The World's 50 Most Valuable Sports Teams - Forbes
And not one from the NHL, cry the owners.

NHL, NHLPA set to resume labour talks on Wednesday - The Globe and Mail
It's going to be smack-down, but at least a cordial one.

An Afternoon With Former Avalanche Enforcer Scott Parker - Mile High Hockey
The story about how Parker signed his contract after the 2004-2005 reads like something out of the 1950's, just a classic hockey tale!

Scott Stevens named to Devils’ coaching staff | Backhand Shelf
Just keep your head up on the way to the water cooler.

Edmonton councillors approve design of new hockey arena - The Globe and Mail
Costs be damned, it's full speed ahead!

Red Wings made big pitch for Rick Nash, but Columbus not willing to deal with Detroit | MLive.com
So much for the notion of Rick Nash, Red Wing.

When Discussing The On-Ice Product, Patience Is Key For Isles Fans | Hockey Independent
Just hang on, it's only another decade or two.

Goaltenders with and without Ken Hitchcock | NHLNumbers.com
How much of an effect has Hitch's notoriously structured style had on his goalies?

Quantifying players' impact on teammate shooting percentage | NHLNumbers.com
Put simply, a small number of players seem to be able to make a significant difference here.

Evander Kane, Winnipeg Jets negotiating John Tavares-like contract | Puck Daddy
After topping the 30-goal mark last season, Kane could cash in big-time.

Nashville Predators sign Jeremy Smith to two-way contract

The Nashville Predators have solidified one part of their goaltending depth chart by signing Jeremy Smith to a one-year, two-way contract that should see him continue to get steady work in Milwaukee.

This comes from the Preds:

Nashville Predators President of Hockey Operations/General Manager David Poile announced today that the club has signed restricted free agent goaltender Jeremy Smith to a one-year, two-way contract worth $660,000 at the National Hockey League level and $65,000 at the American Hockey League level.

Smith, 23 (4/13/89), led the AHL in minutes (3283:59), ranked second among AHL netminders in both wins (31) and shutouts (tie, 5), and ranked fourth in goals-against average (2.17) in his second season with the Milwaukee Admirals in 2011-12. The Dearborn, Mich., native was recalled by the Predators on three occasions in 2011-12, and served as backup for the first time in his career on Jan. 7 vs. Carolina.

Nashville's second choice, 54th overall (second round), in the 2007 Entry Draft played parts of four Ontario Hockey League seasons with Plymouth and Niagara, and represented the U.S. at the 2008 World Junior Championships. He was named USA Hockey's 2007 Dave Peterson Goalie of the Year after appearing in the helping the Plymouth Whalers win the 2007 OHL title and reach the Memorial Cup.

Nashville sports radio places 3 shows in 2012 TALKERS "Heavy Hundred"

Nashville's sports radio landscape has been going through quite a bit of development lately, with the debut last year of a second FM sports radio station (and Nashville Predators flagship) in 102.5 The Game, and the battle for the attention of local sports fans will surely intensify over the coming months with the return of George Plaster to the airwaves. Now, one leading trade industry magazine is giving Music City some major props as a sports talk hotbed.

The debut edition of the TALKERS "Heavy Hundred of Sports Talk" features three Nashville entries among the nation's top 100 sports radio shows, a pretty impressive achievement when you consider the number of nationwide competitors (such as Dan Patrick, Jim Rome, etc.) and the fact that Nashville as a radio market ranks 45th in the country. One would think a city of our size would be lucky to get one, maybe two entries on that list.

But three?

Follow after the jump to take a look at the honorees...

All three shows, interestingly enough, come from 104.5 The Zone:

via www.talkers.com

Congratulations to the Wake Up Zone, the 3HL, and the Midday 180, which all made the cut. Remember, folks, it's not whether you agree or disagree with the guys you see above, but are they engaging? Are they topical? Do they get the conversation going?

The answer is, absolutely. And as Nashville sports fans, the good stuff is just getting started...

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Naming the rumor-followers: Monday afternoon notes

Kicking anonymous hockey rumor-mongers in the shins is always fun sport, but what about their stooges, the legions of followers who breathlessly share the latest fanciful missives everywhere they can? Our afternoon hockey notes tackle the question of just what sort of label should be applied to them...

Nashville Predators News

Smashville 24/7 - Belated thoughts on Preds’ 2012-13 schedule
Considering we'll be lucky to see the season open on time, I wouldn't call this belated at all!

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

Naming the Buffoon: Now Accepting Nominations - Hockey Wilderness
Now here's a fun exercise... my personal favorite name for the hockey rumor followers so far is "Nigerian Royalty".

KuklasKorner : Goal Line Report : An E-mail Interview with Popular NHL Tweeter @NHLGossip
See, this guy I don't have a problem with, because he links to published reports in the media (in the model of Lyle Richardson, aka Spector).

Arbitration explained: because "Arbitration for Dummies" seemed too harsh | Backhand Shelf
An outstanding primer on the arbitration process.

Flyers hire Inside Reporter - Philadelphia Flyers - News
The Flyers become the latest pro sports team to hire a beat writer from a newspaper to become their in-house "insider". But since he's now an employee of the team, you can bet that objectivity will take a hit.

NHLNumbers Podcast: A Look at Free Agency, with James Mirtle | NHLNumbers.com
Listen to smart people talk about hockey.

Long Island's arena reluctance could lead to Brooklyn Islanders - NHL - Sporting News
While this would suck for the die-hards on Long Island, the Islanders absolutely need a new rink.

An NHLPA Strategy : Tom Benjamin's NHL Blog :: CanucksCorner.com
Read Tom's second paragraph here. Over. And. Over. Again. All the entry-level contract, salary arbitration, and UFA timeframe stuff is just window dressing compared to the definition of, and sharing of, Hockey Related Revenue.

Caps Re-Sign Mike Green - Japers' Rink
Three years, $18.25 million. Not bad at all.

Canadiens sign Blake Geoffrion to one-year deal - The Globe and Mail
Boomer gets a two-way contract with the Habs.

Mike Modano: I don’t think I will play again, but I wouldn’t mind trying | Dallas Stars Blog
Maybe he can play with Dominik Hasek in a Huff & Puff league.

Ladislav Scurko, 2004 NHL draft pick, convicted of murdering referee, sentenced to 8 years | Puck Daddy
Holy crap!

NHL, hockey seeing success south of the border - sportsnet.ca
Patrick Hoffman highlights the slow but steady growth of the game down here.

The Goal Counts (May 29, 2002) | Backhand Shelf
Oh, I still remember this goal vividly, it was like seeing Patrick Roy's bubble of invincibility pop in an instant.

Looking at AHL goaltenders vs. NHL players | NHLNumbers.com
Can you predict a goalie's success at the NHL level by looking at how he's performed against shooters who eventually made it to the bigs?

Measuring Puck Possession: The End, Part 1 - Pension Plan Puppets
Good work here addressing the question of just how closely metrics like Corsi & Fenwick describe how much time teams spent in the attacking zone.

Hockey fans wait for the CBA dance to truly begin: Tuesday's notes

Last Friday hockey fans reacted with varying levels of shock and horror to the NHL owners' opening proposal in the CBA negotiations, with some forecasting another entire season to be lost to a lockout, just as in 2004-2005. For now, however, we have to wait and see how the players respond, to get an idea of just how far apart the two groups are as the hard work of negotiation gets underway.

Our morning hockey notes include more on the players' side of the negotiations, along with an update on Blake Geoffrion's fortunes in Montreal...

Nashville Predators News

Former Nashville Predator Blake Geoffrion builds future in Montreal | The Tennessean
Boomer knows that the pressure is on to become a full-time NHL player this season.

Gut Rumblings, A special Message about UAH Hockey
The University of Alabama hockey team is once again putting out the call for help, asking for donations to put together welcome packages for the incoming freshman.

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

NHL: Players' union expected to be aggressive in negotiations - Montreal Gazette
We're all waiting to see how the players respond.

On Sports Media, Generalizations, and Benefit of the Doubt. - Music City Miracles
Not particularly hockey-related, but a nice observation of how certain elements of sports media go off the rails with regularity.

Caps Convention canceled because of CBA uncertainty - Capitals Insider - The Washington Post
Since this is usually scheduled close to the start of the regular season, the Capitals are calling this off.

Springing Malik: The Pain Game 2011/12 - an attempt to use GVT
An alternative approach to this unique injury analysis, now applying GVT.

Tour Des Canadiens Condominiums
Now this is an interesting idea... a condominium complex built alongside the Bell Centre in Montreal.

Silence is Golden

Silence is Golden, at least that seems to be the golden rule prevailing over 501 Broadway the past few days in wake of Ryan Suter's decision to sign with the Minnesota Wild. It has officially been over a week (if you can believe that) and there hasn't been anything to talk about besides a reported "good conversation" between Poile, Weber, and Weber's agent (Jarret Bousqet). Further negotiations will commence a week from now.

If all this sounds familiar, I would encourage you to look back at all the press releases between Ryan Suter and David Poile. Same headlines, different players. The question now is: Will the results be different for these two star players?

I am of the opinion, and I will defend it to the bitter end, that trading Weber is better for our organization as it moves forward. The amount of top end prospects, draft picks, and potential roster players could ultimately fill in holes that we have always had on our roster (first line center, top three wingers). While replacing Weber and Ryan is all but impossible (yes impossible), we have a stable of young defenseman to soften the blow. Further more, the trade market seems to have a plethora of defenseman that could potentially be available for the Predators to pick up for a relatively inexpensive cost (Jay Bouwmeester and Paul Martin to name a few).

Ultimately, you have to look at our current predicament at face value: Weber has had since July 1^st, 2010. That's over two years ago. If Shea hasn't signed by now (much like Suter), I don't see why anyone would think he would have a sudden change of heart and sign on the dotted line. If I were Poile (which I am glad I am not), I would give Shea a deadline date of July 19^th. If he does not commit to the team by then, it is time to trade him to the highest bidder that Weber will sign a long-term extension with, regardless of what team or division. At this point in our history, it means more to us to get maximum value than it does to keep him out of the Western Conference.

I would then trade for one of the previously mentioned defensemen to round out our blue line and try to sign an upgrade or two at forward and go into the season as a cap floor team. Let Craig Smith and the young core try to carry the team. If we make it to the playoffs, bully for us. If we don't, hopefully we will be so bad that we can draft near the top of the board and get an elite talent that this team desperately needs. With a plethora of talented prospects from the draft and the Weber trade, our rebuild won't nearly be as painful as most other teams. We will also have bucket loads of money saved up from being a floor team from the previous year to really make a splash at free agents or potential trades for star players in the future. Either way we win.

Some people will view my opinion as heat of the moment or that of a jilted lover, but this has been a thought in the back of my mind since last summer when Weber was taken to arbitration. The organization's window of opportunity slammed shut when Suter shut the door on the Predators. With Weber still in doubt, it is better to turn the page and begin a rebuild that will be made substantially easier with the assets gained from dealing Weber than be strung out all summer trying to determine if he is staying or going. Rebuilds are never fun, but if done correctly, they can end up being better for your organization. I trust David Poile do to the right things, make the right calls, and ultimately keep us on track to a Stanley Cup title.

So I ask you, dear reader, is Shea Weber more valuable as a member of the team or as the king's ransom the Predators would get in return for him in a trade?

In addition to our own silence the rest of the league appears to be holding its breath as well due to CBA negotiations and the uncertainty of the Shea Weber negotiations. If the CBA is finalized before Weber is signed, all eyes will be on Nashville.

Poll

Should the Nashville Predators trade Shea Weber?

• Yes
• No

  354 votes | Results

Edmonton, Seattle & Las Vegas still working on new arenas: Monday's notes

Hockey fans are closely watching the CBA negotiations to see how the balance might change between NHL owners and players (and more importantly, whether the season will start on time), but there's another contributor to hockey's business which becomes the focus of this morning's notes: the arenas. A modern arena is the economic engine that generates revenue from fans and corporate sponsors, and getting one built is a challenge requiring not just money but healthy amounts of political skill, too.

So let's take a tour and see how progress is going in Edmonton, Seattle, and Las Vegas...

Follow @Forechecker

Nashville Predators News

Nashville Predator Off Season Predictions | Hack Whack and Snack
Dave shares 10 predictions for Smashville's summer.

Ryan Suter, Shea Weber see fantasy values change after Suter's move to Minnesota Wild - Fantasy Hockey - ESPN
I can't say I agree with the assessment here. Suter is going to an offensively challenged Wild team, so is unlikely to see a big rise in production, and if anyone is going to inherit a major opportunity here it's Roman Josi more than Ryan Ellis, who would still be behind Shea Weber on the right side.

NHL’s opening CBA offer can’t be music to Shea Weber’s ears - Nashville Predators Examiner

Jim Diamond shares some optimism about the Preds signing the captain.

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

Daryl Katz has the prescription for the Oilers - The Globe and Mail
The self-made billionaire is working to have a new arena built in Edmonton with public support, but costs are rising rapidly.

The Seattle Arena Opposition: How to Parry a Billionaire - The Hockey Writers
There's a reason that the Sonics left Seattle a few years ago, and it hasn't disappeared.

At a glance: Las Vegas Arena Foundation - Las Vegas Sun
How about Vegas, baby? I really like the idea of having a hockey team there. (Found via Kukla's Korner).

Slap Shots: NHL proposal to slash salaries and revenues and delay free agency is Declaration of Wars against players union - NYPOST.com
I can understand siding with the players here, but boy does Larry Brooks pile on the hyperbole.

If the NHL gets its way, players like Nail Yakupov will have much less incentive to play in North America | Edmonton Journal
You just know the KHL will be cheering on that whole idea of 5-year entry level contracts...

Blue Jackets: Nash saga could get awkward as camp nears | BlueJackets Xtra
Will the sun ever shine on Columbus?

Halak on track for return, Blues say - STLToday.com
For a number of injured players, a delay to the start of the season might be all that bad.

Watch Theo Fleury make ‘hockey tonk’ debut at Calgary Saddledome (VIDEO) | Puck Daddy
Hmm... what do you think?

Roberto Luongo’s poker dream folds, finishes 634th at 2012 World Series in Vegas | Puck Daddy
He cashed in, so well done.

NHLers keen to support charity for concussion research - The Globe and Mail
The really interesting bit here is the discussion with Eric Lindros on how with hindsight, critics might view his career differently.

Kyle Wellwood Is Coming Back To Winnipeg - Arctic Ice Hockey
Dang, now Jets fans can brag about three scoring lines.

Fortune Favors the Gold

Are you missing hockey badly these days?

Of course you are, and we've got a long ways to go until the 2012-2013 season opens, both in terms of the calendar and the grind of CBA negotiations between the owners and players.

But here's something to get that hockey blood pumping through your veins.

The Nashville Predators have been asking fans to submit ideas for a tagline for the upcoming season, and while I've held off featuring or endorsing any of the entries here, when this item got posted on the OTF Facebook page, I simply had to share it this morning. Just check out the video that goes along with this entry, "Fortune Favors the Gold" by Joshia Pickens...

#Smashville - Fortune Favors the Gold from Joshua Pickens on Vimeo.

Rinse and repeat as necessary to help get you through the summer. And congratulations to Joshua Pickens on a job well done! I'm always amazed when stuff like this comes along, it just shows how one fan's passion + a healthy dose of effort & creativity can inspire us all.