With just about 24 hours left until free agency opens, a few more contract signings have thinned out the market a bit further. In Calgary, Colorado and Montreal, second- and third-tier players are passing up their opportunity to play the field.
But one surprising name WILL hit the market, according to reports...
Today's the final day! Go to People & Places -> Best Blog & cast your daily vote for OTF in the Toast of Music City 2012!
Nashville Predators News
Take a chance on TOOTS - Winnipeg Free Press The drumbeat gets started in Winnipeg for the Jets to sign Jordin Tootoo.
Christmas in July: The Predators "Realistic" Wish List | The Predatorial Jeremy goes through his shopping list.
Smashville 24/7 - Smashville On The Glass podcast – Frenzy looming I'm guessing secret agents conspired to sabotage Ryan's podcast right before they got to revealing some juicy intel.
Coach of Nashville Predators' AHL affiliate Dean Evason knows top talent | The Tennessean Dean Evason worked with guys like Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin in Washington. Can he ignite some offensive talent in Milwaukee?
If Suter goes, five potential replacements for Preds - FS Tennessee It's the question of the day... how best to replace #20.
The Hippodrome: It's The Economy, Stupid | Pith in the Wind J.R. makes a taxing argument in favor of free agents choosing Nashville.
Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey
Martin Brodeur Likely To Test Free Agency, According To Report - In Lou We Trust Strange Days, indeed.
Flames Continue To Make Justin Sad, Sign Cory Sarich To A 2-Year, $4 Million Dollar Deal [UPDATED: More Signings!] - Matchsticks and Gasoline Facepalm material in Calgary, apparently.
Avalanche Sign Downie to 2-year, $5.3 Million Deal - Mile High Hockey Colorado locks up an important cog up front.
Official Release: Canadiens sign Travis Moen to a four-year contract | All Habs Hockey Magazine Montreal settles in which a guy who at one point was looked at as a potential top-flight power forward, but those days have passed.
Down Goes Brown: 2012 Free Agency Preview What other primer do you need?
Rumblings: Don't forget about Parenteau - Cross Checks Blog - ESPN It will be really interesting to see how P.A. Parenteau fares off of Long Island.
Jason Garrison would love to be a Canuck, but he may be too expensive - The Province This guy, to me, is the real wild card in free agency. He's had one breakout season, so how do you project him going forward? Somebody will likely step up with a huge offer.
Crazy goalie contracts | Backhand Shelf It's not the money which surprises me so much as the term on these deals.
Picking Through Second Pairing Defensemen | NHLNumbers.com A really novel look at things here by Robert Vollman.
Principles of General Management: UFA Day Edition | Backhand Shelf These are the times that can make or break a GM's career.
Big money talks big as free agents look to cash in - The Globe and Mail With the cap moving ever higher, there are several teams with major amounts of money to toss around.
Asking the Right Questions - The Imprecise and Unattainable | NHLNumbers.com Kent Wilson ponders that whole "intangibles" thing.
Should the next NHL CBA offer term-limits on contracts, outlaw Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Quick-like deals? | Puck Daddy This is sure to become a contentious topic this summer.
The Nashville Predators have locked in defenseman Hal Gill for another two seasons, at a contract valued at $4 million per Josh Cooper's report. This is a nice match for both sides, as Gill provides size & strength which are desperately need on the Predators' blueline, while the 37-year-old is getting a two-year contract, which is pretty rare for over-35 players.
Hal Gill
#75 / Defenseman / Nashville Predators
6-7
244
Apr 06, 1975
Plus, you can't ignore how great the guy is on Twitter (@Skillsy75).
This is as much about shoring up the 3rd pair and penalty killing units as it is about having an on-ice mentor for the host of young defensemen which the Preds will rely on in the coming seasons.
During 104.5 The Zone's SportsFest last weekend, Brent Peterson talked about how the Preds were hoping to bring Gill back as a partner for Ryan Ellis.
My name is David Yampolsky, and I will periodically be a guest blogger here on On The Forecheck. I am currently a rising senior at Vanderbilt University, majoring in both Communications and Biology. Not only am I a huge fan of the Predators, but I have worked for them too. This past semester, I worked as an intern under Willy Daunic for the Predators Radio Network. I helped out with the Pre- and Post-Game Shows and also performed locker room interviews. I guess the advantage I had was that I am a native Russian speaker and so was able to get some "insider information" from the Kostitsyn brothers, and you guessed it, good old Radulov. It is an honor for me to be blogging for On The Forecheck now, and I hope to be able to contribute greatly as I will continue working with the Predators Radio Network this upcoming year.
My first piece is a two-part review of which free agents I think David Poile should focus on. Today's piece will cover unrestricted free agents, and I have compiled a detailed analysis of both forwards and defensemen who I think will be invaluable assets to the Preds in the upcoming years if they really want a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. Please feel free to leave comments and offer your input, as these free agents are just proposals based off of my knowledge and research, and I am sure a case can be provided for others as well. Thanks!
Olli Jokinen
#13 / Center / Calgary Flames
6-3
215
Dec 05, 1978
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
SHG
GWG
SOG
82
23
38
61
-12
54
9
0
5
223
Olli Jokinen is arguably the best center available on the market right now, and if the Predators want to have a real shot at the Cup next year, they are going to have to bring in some offensive superpower. Jokinen, who has scored over 50 points in each of the last four seasons, had 61 points in 82 games with Calgary this past season. He also had 9 power play goals this past season for the Flames Bottom line is: don’t count the 33-year-old from a strong season next season. The Preds can use Okinen on the second line possibly, moving Legwand down to the third line if needed. Jokinen earned $3 million last year, so expect him to get a slight raise and a 2-3 year contract if the Preds can entice him to travel across the border to Music City next season.
Ray Whitney
#13 / Left Wing / Phoenix Coyotes
5-10
180
May 08, 1972
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
SHG
GWG
SOG
2011 - Ray Whitney
82
24
53
77
26
28
8
0
1
185
At 40 years of age, Ray Whitney may be one of the few players in NHL history who still can still be looking forward to a raise at his age. He was 24-53-77 last year while playing in all 82 games for the Phoenix Coyotes, with a career-best plus-26 rating. Moreover, Whitney has averaged 22.2 goals per year in the five seasons since. The Coyotes want Whitney to return, but general manager Don Maloney is hesitant to offer a 40-year-old anything more than a one-year deal, especially at Whitney’s asking price (more than $3 million per season). The Predators, with enough cap space, can sign Whitney to a multi-year deal and see him off until his retirement. The Preds would benefit from the veteran leadership Whitney would provide on the offense, and he could take over Andrei Kostitsyn’s spot and really strengthen the Preds’ second line this upcoming season.
P.A. Parenteau
#15 / Left Wing / New York Islanders
6-0
193
Mar 24, 1983
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
2011 - P.A. Parenteau
18
49
67
-8
89
According to hockey analyst Renaud Lavoie of RDS, New York Islanders forward P-A Parenteau will hit the free-agent market on July 1. The 29-year-old, who posted a career-high 67 points after collecting 18 goals and 49 assists in 80 games this past season, has failed to reach an agreement with GM Garth Snow on a new contract. Yes, Parenteau’s success was due largely to being centered by John Tavares, but the Predators are in desperate need of a young talented Right Winger to fill the void left by Alexander Radulov, and Parenteau may well be prepared to step up to the challenge. Due to his significantly improved offensive performance in the past two years, Parenteau is due for a significant pay raise, and the Predators would have to offer Parenteau something along the line of $4 million at 4 years to woo him to join the Preds for the upcoming season.
Ryan Smyth
#94 / Left Wing / Edmonton Oilers
6-2
192
Feb 21, 197
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
2011 - Ryan Smyth
19
27
46
-5
82
Ryan Smyth is widely regarded as the second-best net-front man of his generation, behind Detroit's Tomas Holmstrom. Smyth is a leader who plays with grit and determination around the crease and has been a consistent scorer, notching 20 or more goals 11 times. Despite years of wear and tear, he played in every game the past two seasons. The 36-year-old can provide the Preds the offensive spark they need, especially on the power play, which seemed to falter greatly during the playoffs this year. If the Preds have lost their chemistry on the power play, Smyth may be the one to restore it. He would most likely take Andrei Kostitsyn’s place on the second line. Smyth made $4.5 million last year, but a two-year deal worth $3 million might do the trick, considering Smyth is contemplating finishing his career after these last couple seasons. This might be the short-term investment the Predators need to make to improve their chances of ever making it past the second round of the playoffs.
Mikael Samuelsson
#26 / Right Wing / Florida Panthers
6-2
218
Dec 23, 1976
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
SHG
GWG
SOG
2011 - Mikael Samuelsson
54
14
17
31
1
20
7
0
1
138
If Dale Tallon is in fact interested in resigning Dmitry Kulikov and Jason Garrison, on top of acquiring some more offensive talent to make themselves future Stanley Cup contenders, the Panthers are going to have to dish out a lot of dough to keep both players locked in long term. Mikael Samuelsson made $2.5 million the last three years, and the Panthers may not be inclined to pony up any more money for him. He was traded halfway into the regular season from Vancouver to Florida, and despite the fact he recently turned 35, Samuelsson hasn’t thrown in the towel quite yet. In only 48 games with the Panthers, he tallied 28 points on the Panthers’ second line. The Predators can use another veteran forward on the team, as it is not yet clear what the team’s leadership will look like in light of the uncertainty regarding where Ryan Suter will decide to sign ultimately.
Lee Stempniak
#22 / Right Wing / Calgary Flames
6-0
195
Feb 04, 1983
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
SHG
GWG
SOG
2011 - Lee Stempniak
61
14
14
28
-2
16
2
0
2
130
In the 2008-2009 season, Lee Stempniak had a breakthrough season with 30 goals with the St. Louis Blues and later with the Toronto Maple Leafs after he was traded midway into the season. Since then, Stempniak’s performance has slightly staggered, though it hasn’t been horrible. In 2010-2011 with the Phoenix Coyotes, Stempniak amassed 19 goals and 38 points, and this past season with the Calgary Flames, he was able to score 14 goals and accumulate 28 points total. Stempniak is yet another decent veteran forward the Predators can look at. He made $2.3 million last year with Calgary, so landing him for $2 million for a short-term deal to see how he fits into the team and whether he can improve his performance would not be a bad move on the part of the Preds.
Jiri Hudler
#26 / Right Wing / Detroit Red Wings
5-10
182
Jan 04, 1984
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
SHG
GWG
SOG
2011 - Jiri Hudler
81
25
25
50
10
42
2
0
2
127
The Predators need not look much further for more offensive depth than with Jiri Judler of the Detroit Red Wings. Hudler had 25 goals and dished out 25 assists, which was due largely to the chemistry he found with linemates Henrik Zetterberg and Valtteri Filppula, Detroit’s top line. There’s little doubt Hudler should be able to land a huge deal from another team looking for offense who would be willing to spend at least $4 million on Hudler per year (Hudler made $3 million last year). Though the Red Wings want to put their money in possibly signing Alexander Semin or Ryan Suter, they have expressed interest in resigning Hudler. However, if the Preds can present Hudler a better offer than the Red Wings come July 1st, than a fellow familiar face may be staying in the Central Division, but this time he will be wearing blue and gold, not red and white. Expect Hudler to take either the second or third line if he comes to the Preds.
Matt Carle
#25 / Defenseman / Philadelphia Flyers
6-0
205
Sep 25, 1984
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
SHG
GWG
SOG
2011 - Matt Carle
82
4
34
38
4
36
3
0
0
132
If Ryan Suter doesn’t come back to the Predators after July 1st, which is highly expected, the Predators need to act quickly if they at least want to lock in Shea Weber for a long-term deal. That certainly entails bringing in a top-line defenseman that will replace Suter. A very viable option is Matt Carle of the Philadelphia Flyers. In some ways, he is very similar to Suter: he does not put up huge offensive numbers, but he moves the puck well and can join the rush. He is a good shot blocker, and he led the Flyers in ice time last season. Though the Flyers are highly interested in him, they may be very interested in signing Suter instead, in which case they will have no room to sign Carle. Carle is looking at $5 million a season right now on the open market, a $1.2 million increase from last season. Expect the Flyers to not give him up that easily.
Jason Garrison
#52 / Defenseman / Florida Panthers
6-2
216
Nov 13, 1984
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
SHG
GWG
SOG
2011 - Jason Garrison
77
16
17
33
6
32
9
0
3
168
Jason Garrison had a breakout season for the Florida Panthers in 2011-12, producing 16 goals and 17 assists in 77 games, and finishing with a plus-6. Garrison, 27, has very good size at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds. He's got a wicket slap shot - one that helped deliver nine power play goals, and he's a solid penalty killer. He was second on the Panthers with an average of 23:41 minutes in playing time, and second with 124 blocked shots. Moreover, he was credited with 127 hits. He's coming off a two-year, $1.35 million deal, which, in light of the season he just had, makes him one of the best bargains on the market right now. Garrison is reportedly seeking a five-year/$25 million contract, and if the Preds lose Suter, Garrison can definitely be serious alternative. The Panthers are optimistic about resigning Garrison, but they may not be able to front the deal Garrison seeks, since re-signing Kulikov and Versteeg are also a priority for them.
This is what star players do when they believe in their team and their city:
Expect the Penguins to announce Sidney Crosby's contract extension on Sunday. Over $100 million dollars with an AAV of close to $9 mil per.
--- TSN's Darren Dreger on Twitter
Sidney Crosby
#87 / Center / Pittsburgh Penguins
5-11
200
Aug 07, 1987
That's pretty good money for a guy who's only played 63 games over the past two seasons due to concussion issues. Crosby isn't due to become an unrestricted free agent for another year, so July 1 is the earliest he can sign a contract extension.
Meanwhile here in Nashville, Ryan Suter (and Shea Weber) are taking the slow, quiet path towards UFA status, and the freedom to choose where they'll play. Over at Pensburgh, they see this move as the Penguins making a strong public statement to potential free agents they'll court in just a few days:
It says, point blank, if you come to Pittsburgh, Crosby will be here for the entirity of your stay. And so long as you have Sidney Crosby on your team, you know management will be attempting to field a competitive team with the realisitic goal of making a play to chase down the Stanley Cup year after year. This is serious business.
And, the same $8.7 million salary also a warning shot too. Yesterday Washington traded impending free agent Dennis Wideman to Calgary, who signed the defenseman to a 5 year, $5.25 million contract...Per season. Free agency always inflates value, so it's frightening to think of the staggering offers that better players like Suter and Parise are about to have tossed their way. The message here being: Pittsburgh's obviously setting the bar here, and players have to take a little less to fill out the team and better compete.
Hey, at least here in Nashville Pekka Rinne has bought in!
Never has a headline struck me as so patently false as, "Nashville Predators evaluate players with advanced stats."
Josh Cooper's story tells how David Poile really connected with the book Moneyball, about the startling success of the small-market Oakland A's in the early 2000's. The book, of course, details how Billy Beane and his lieutenants used advanced statistics years before other front offices, and leveraged that knowledge to sign undervalued players to cheap contracts.
The appeal of such a story to the General Manager of the historically cash-strapped Nashville Predators should be obvious. David Poile might even rightly even see himself in the book's protagonist, Billy Beane. Turning Long Island ball hockey superstar Joel Ward into the 3.5 million dollar man has to be a feat as impressive as anything involving Scott Hatteberg. Though I'm not sure Brad Pitt would play Poile in the movie version (maybe Kevin Bacon?).
I even believe that Poile knows of hockey's equivalent to sabermetrics. And I know there are people within the Preds front office that understand such stats.
Still, to read a story about how David Poile uses advanced statistics to evaluate players is a little odd, since every player they've brought into the organization in the last 2 years has had terrible advanced stats. Here's 2 years worth of transactions and their Corsi number for the Preds last season:
Paul Gaustad (trade): -11
Andrei Kostitsyn (trade): -4
Hal Gill (trade): -9
Brandon Yip (waivers): -15
Niclas Bergfors (signing): -14
Jack Hillen (signing): -11
Marek Svatos (waivers): -4
Mike Fisher (trade): -13
Sergei Kostitsyn (trade): -9
Matt Halischuk (trade): -16
Francis Bouillon (signing): -9
Now look how the players they dumped in that same span fared this year:
Jerred Smithson (trade): -16
Blake Geoffrion (trade): -13
Cal O'Reilly (waivers): -12
Cody Franson (trade): +2
Matthew Lombardi (trade): -9
Shane O'Brien: +8
Joel Ward: -2
Steve Sullivan: +14
Marcel Goc: +5
Alexander Sulzer: +5
Mike Santorelli: even (0)
Dan Hamhuis: +10
Jason Arnott: +9
Listen, I'm not saying that all those acquisitions were bad, or that they should have paid top dollar to keep Ward or Hamhuis. Obviously, there are mitigating circumstances and other dimensions of analysis to consider with every move listed here. And Corsi only tells about part of a player's value.
Still...Corsi number measures to what an extent a player's team does or does not get outshot, when that player is on the ice. And when, over the course of two years, you dump nearly all your players with good Corsi ratings and only bring in players with bad Corsi ratings -- no matter the other considerations -- you might find your team getting outshot, often and by a lot, like the Predators were this year.
To have success while getting outshot every game, as Gabe Desjardins talks about in Cooper's article, you basically need the world's best goalie and special teams. And thank the hockey gods the Predators did! But that kind of success is hanging by a very thin thread. Nothing varies year-to-year as much as goalie performance and special teams play. Just look at the SV% or PP% leaders from one year to next. Always a different list.
And besides this brand of success being very fleeting, it's also very obvious. Moneyball was about finding players who did things that were subtle, but no less important to winning games. Finding a player who can rip a wrist shot on the power play or block a shot in the defensive end? Not subtle. Bringing in a Joel Ward type, who controls the end boards, making sure zone-exits are smooth? Subtle.
I wrote about the Predators and this oft-made comparison to Moneyball in October, when the movie was coming out. In my piece, I said the Predators more closely resembled the villains of the book (the indignant scouts and media), than Beane and Paul DePodesta. If you'll allow me to quote myself from that article:
We can even make a simple application of Walker's theory to hockey: if hockey is equally about taking shots and preventing shots--and a team taking a shot is necessarily, at that moment, not allowing a shot--forward offense is hugely more important than forward defense.
If there's a correspondant Oakland team to today's Predators, it's the mediocre A's of the past five years, not the hugely successful Moneyball teams of the five years prior. Since the Red Sox made traditional Moneyball tactics work for a big market team, Oakland (among other teams) tried to stake out a new niche in building defense-first teams.
And while teams like Oakland and Seattle no doubt reached their goal of evaluating defense better than the rest, they betrayed their ultimate goal: winning. Oakland's slick-fielding, low-OBP speedesters dominate that 5% of the game. But alas, it's still just 5%.
Today's A's teams are hard to score against, but beatable. Sound familiar? Unfortunately for Billy Beane, he's running out of options--On Base Percentage is now the opposite of a secret. Fortunately for the Predators, hockey is decades behind baseball, in this regard.
I'm not calling David Poile a liar here, he probably does use Corsi numbers -- or whatever -- to compare players on his own team. But to really accept the message of the advanced stats would entail critically rethinking fundamental tenants of his player personnel philosophy. And seeing as the Predators have doubled-down on the extremely conservative "Predator Way" in recent years, I don't think that's what's going on.
On the other hand, David Poile's obviously not actively working to go against advanced statistics with his transactions. So with hopefully a better offseason -- and a step forward from young Corsi monsters like Ryan Ellis, Craig Smith, and Gabby Bourque -- the Predators could be a more well-rounded team next year.
With NHL free agency coming up on Sunday, the league-wide market is taking in the impact of long, long-term extensions agreed to by Sidney Crosby & Jonathan Quick with their teams yesterday...
There are just 2 days left! Go to People & Places -> Best Blog & cast your daily vote for OTF in the Toast of Music City 2012!
Nashville Predators News
Preds On The Glass: What does the Hal Gill signing really mean for Smashville? Interesting thoughts here from Buddy about how Gill has made a commitment while the Preds' two mainstays on defense hold back.
Post Mortem V: "Learning from the Champs" - Predlines Among other concerns, Dan throws down the gauntlet to Game Ops.
Smashville 24/7 - Decision to turn pro ‘easy’ for Hellberg I'm a bit confused. Doesn't playing in the Swedish Elite League last year count as "pro"?
Smashville 24/7 - Conversation with Jack Maclellan Maclellan went from Brown to Black Ace in the blink of an eye.
Paul McCann - Crazy Season is Here, SSR Thanks and Randoms. Paul's already rolling his eyes at some of the salary numbers we're seeing in contracts these days.
Suter could circle back - Predators Insider The Preds are in the mix... but there are no guarantees that the Preds can simply match what other teams offer (nor should anyone expect there to be).
An update on Paul Gaustad - Predators Insider Don't hold your breath waiting for a Gaustad signing prior to the free agent market opening on Sunday.
New Division, New Rules | Admirals Roundtable Ryan looks at some of the change which is coming to the AHL next season.
Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey
Crosby Signs | mc79hockey.com What does Sid's new deal mean for the top end of the player market? Not much, argues Tyler.
Jonathan Quick Agrees To 10-Year Deal With Kings - Jewels From The Crown Wow... he's had one above-average season in save percentage and gets this much?
Et Tu, Cheveldayoff? Rask Signs Reasonable One-Year, $3.5M Deal With Bruins - Stanley Cup of Chowder A reasonable, short-term move here while Boston takes time to think ahead.
NHL, NHLPA agree on $70.2 million salary cap that probably won’t apply to next season | Puck Daddy It's interesting to hear GM's in Philadelphia & Calgary talk about how they're willing to approach the cap this summer, while David Poile exercises more caution.
Lowetide.ca | STREIT SHOOTER Could the Oilers add a legitimate defenseman to their lineup?
Olli Jokinen, Calgary Flames part ways; best UFA center available? | Puck Daddy What a year to hit the market, eh? I suspect the team which dangles some tasty waffles in front of Joker will win his services.
Is Justin Schultz Worth the Hype? | NHLNumbers.com Get an idea of what the fuss is all about.
Matt Carle to test free agency, says report - Broad Street Hockey If the Flyers can't keep him, Carle would make a fine choice for any team.
Report: Canucks Sign Schneider To A 3-Year Deal, Plus: Dreger Talks Luongo - Nucks Misconduct 3 years, $12 million? Yup, it looks like Cory Schneider is the new starter in Vancouver.
Time for consensus, not conflict, in NHL labour talks | Hockey | CBC Sports Yeah, the "conflict" part will come as soon as they actually sit down across a table.
Turns out Patrik Elias totally did have the LA Kings’ Stanley Cup winning game puck | Puck Daddy Our long national nightmare is over.
Asking the Right questions - Beware Small Samples | NHLNumbers.com Kent explains just how & why management heads down the wrong road at times.
On the scoring chance project, and why it must continue | NHLNumbers.com Cam tries to get the wind blowing through those sails again, after an article a few days ago dismissed the utility of tracking scoring chances.
The Trials Of Covering A Trial Part 3: The Verdict - Five For Howling Slowly (but surely?) the Coyotes deal inches forward.
Brodeur is a Fraud: Why Couldn't Mats Sundin Score on the Power Play? Arguing that Mats Sundin is indeed a solid choice over Brendan Shanahan for this Hockey Hall of Fame class.
The weather is getting downright ridiculous here in Nashville, with temperatures expected to top 100 degrees for the next few days. I'm seeing a high of 107 predicted for Saturday - are you kidding me???
Thankfully, the Nashville Predators' Development Camp is back in action this morning from 9 a.m. to noon, so head over to Centennial Sportsplex and beat the heat if you can! Just check here for the full schedule and player roster.
And now, on to your morning hockey notes, which include stories on two of the defenseman at this year's camp...
There are just a few days left! Go to People & Places -> Best Blog & cast your daily vote for OTF in the Toast of Music City 2012!
Nashville Predators News
Nashville Predators prospect Mattias Ekholm studies abroad to exit doghouse | The Tennessean Is Mattias Ekholm ready to make a bigger impact this fall? He was named the top defenseman in the Swedish Elite League last season, and may well have the highest upside of any of the Preds' young blueliners.
This year’s development camp a little different for Anthony Bitetto -Nashville Predators Examiner Change is nothing new to Bitetto, who is preparing to play for his third head coach in three seasons.
Why Nashville Can Live Without Suter | The Predatorial How's this for a dose of optimism? "Nashville can survive without the services of Ryan Suter. With Ryan Ellis (possibly the next great elite defenseman) ready to play, Roman Josi already establishing himself as part of the defensive future of Nashville, and names like Ekholm/Blum/Bartley/Bitetto/Roussel ready to go, the Predators are definitely not defensively-starved." Of those "ready to go" guys, none played in the NHL in 2012.
Bridgestone Arena lease should be approved | The Greenville News This is actually the Tennessean's editorial endorsing the new lease agreement between the city and team (stupid paywall).
Brent Peterson golf tournament dates announced - Predators Insider The annual golf outing & dinner is set for September 17 & 18.
Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey
Sidney Crosby, Marian Hossa Headline Pittsburgh's 2012 Free Agent Class | The Hockey Writers An interesting look at how Ray Shero got caught waiting for Marian Hossa to make a decision back in 2008, and how that has affected his decisiveness in handling free agents ever since.
Canes Now - Muller: Staals initially to play on same line | newsobserver.com blogs It should be fun for the fans in Carolina to watch these two work together.
Wideman deal means Flames aren't rebuilding - Cross Checks Blog - ESPN We've been wondering for years when Calgary might start over from scratch... but they stubbornly refuse to do so.
Patrik Elias had LA Kings Stanley Cup puck, but has no idea what he did with it | Puck Daddy The mystery continues...
Greatest Hockey Legends.com: HHOF Log Jam No More? Next year, the Hall of Fame may be able to catch up with some deserving candidates.
Searching For Hockey's Tuffy Rhodes | Overtime What, no Linus Klasen?
With Jordin Tootoo apparently leaving the Nashville Predators when free agency opens on July 1, I thought this would be a good time to finally have a contest to give away an item I've had sitting in bubble-wrap for over a year - a framed, 11" x 14" officially licensed photo of Tootoo (provided by the good folks at PhotoFile), the perfect keepsake for any Preds fan to put on their bookshelf, or hang on the wall wherever you hunker down to watch the team in action.
To enter, you have to do two things:
Head over to OTF Facebook page (http://www.facebook.com/OnTheForecheck) and "Like" it.
Leave a comment under the Facebook post announcing this contest.
It's that easy!
The deadline for entry is 11:00 a.m. Central time on Saturday, June 30, after which time I'll pull the list of entrants (one per Facebook account) and randomly select a winner.
Full contest rules are available via the following PDF document, and all participants are subject to these rules:
Official Rules - OTF Jordin Tootoo Framed Photo Sweepstakes (PDF)
A trade & sign transaction today has observers wondering just how high some of the contracts might climb when free agency opens on Sunday, as defenseman Dennis Wideman, set to become a UFA, instead signs for 5 years and over $26 million with the Calgary Flames today...
There are just a few days left! Go to People & Places -> Best Blog & cast your daily vote for OTF in the Toast of Music City 2012!
Nashville Predators News
Hockey Night in Nashville: Q&A: Development Camp Day 1 Robby caught up with Pontus Aberg, Colton Sissons and Vic Bartley after practice yesterday.
Fourth round pick Vainonen taken in CHL Import Draft by Kingston… | Section 303 The Preds' pick might come over and start learning the North American game as early as this fall.
Paul McCann - Pred Notes/PreSeason Sked/ Randoms & Season Finale - SlapShot Radio Tonight Paul sets up tonight's final radio show of the season, and plans for a road trip to Washington.
PredGold: Taglines - #mysmashville Here are a few entries in the Preds' grassroots marketing campaign.
The Suter situation updated - Predators Insider If Ryan Suter takes a few days (or more) to decide on where he'll sign, the other quality UFA's might already be scooped up.
Five Hole: Cap can't concern top teams; Shanahan better than Sundin - NHL - Sporting News While David Poile spoke to David Boclair recently about how he dare not approach too closely to the salary cap given the uncertainty over the next CBA, Philadelphia's Paul Holmgren sounds much more cavalier.
Predators' Pekka Rinne buys West Meade home for $1.3M - Nashville Business Journal Pretty modest stuff, considering his new contract. You've gotta like that.
Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey
Black Dog Hates Skunks: On Kreuger and Some Thoughts On The Draft Schmaft While a new head coach lift the Oilers back into the playoffs? Certainly not all by himself.
KuklasKorner : KK Hockey : Blues Extend The Contract Of Ken Hitchcock No surprise here.
Nearing labor showdown, Bettman stays focused on NHL’s future - NHL - Sporting News The Heavyweight Champ sounds like he's limbering up for a long bout.
NHLPA unveils 31-player negotiating committee - The Globe and Mail Shea Weber is Nashville's lone representative on the NHLPA crew.
With shallow free agent pool, NHL GMs anticipate summer of trading | Puck Daddy The wheeling & dealing might at least distract us from CBA talk.
The Dark Blue Jacket: Could Jack Johnson Be the Blue Jackets Rod Langway? Um, sorry, not buying this one at all, even after reading the explanation.
Why was Brendan Shanahan snubbed for the Hockey Hall of Fame? | Puck Daddy ...because Mats Sundin was captain of the Maple Leafs, and the HHOF is in Toronto, obviously. Sundin deserves to be in there, but not ahead of Shanny.
Bure and Gallagher : Tom Benjamin's NHL Blog :: CanucksCorner.com Keep stuff like this in mind whenever you hear a newspaper, TV or radio guy portray bloggers as irresponsible rumor-mongers.
The Quiet Room HHOF Edition: Pavel Bure | Backhand Shelf Everything you always wanted to know about the knee injuries which ultimately felled Bure's career.
Searching For Hockey's Tuffy Rhodes | Overtime What, no Linus Klasen?
Hockey coach trips teen players during post-game handshakes; RCMP investigating (VIDEO) - Buzzing The Net BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...
So how's your day going? Not as well as Adam Oates' is, I'm guessing.
One of the most admired and creative playmakers of the 80's and 90's, Adam Oates has received a double dose of outstanding news. First, he was named to his first NHL head coaching job, with the Washington Capitals, and then just a little while ago, he was included in the next class of Hockey Hall of Fame inductees.
Oates stands out in my memory for being part of one of the worst trades in NHL history. Back in 1989, he was traded by Detroit along with winger Paul MacLean (yes, the Ottawa Senators' head coach) for the aging Bernie Federko and Tony McKegney. A college roommate of mine captured on tape Red Wings GM Jimmy Devellano explaining the deal on local TV. I can still see Devellano saying, completely deadpan, "we believe Marc Habscheid will replace Adam Oates." Habscheid played only one season for the Red Wings, and put up 31 goals and 30 assists across three seasons from that point on. Oates, on the other hand, tallied 343 goals and 1,137 assists after leaving Detroit.
Our afternoon hockey notes touch on Oates' big day, the other new Hockey Hall of Famers, and a whole lot more...
Go to People & Places -> Best Blog & cast your daily vote for OTF in the Toast of Music City 2012!
Nashville Predators News
Time to free up NHL free agency + 30 Thoughts | Hockey | CBC Sports Elliotte Friedman tosses out a potential destination for Ryan Suter which we haven't really talked about before...
Counting down free agents who make sense for the Stars: No. 2 Ryan Suter | Dallas Stars Blog Will Dallas make a run at him? It couldn't hurt to try.
Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey
Greatest Hockey Legends.com: Sakic, Sundin, Bure, Oates Inducted Into HHOF It's hard to argue with these four, but no Brendan Shanahan? That's a shock.
Report: Adam Oates New Capitals Head Coach - Japers' Rink Can he re-ignite the offense in Washington? They threw away the last two seasons trying to be some kind of shutdown defensive squad.
Down Goes Brown: Other NHL brother acts "Andrei and Sergei Kostitsyn - Have played together for both the Montreal Canadiens and the Nashville Predators and could do it again for a third team, assuming Sergei is willing to play for whatever Sunday night rec league team David Poile sends Andrei to."
Shane O'Brien Signs Three Year Deal - Mile High Hockey Has the Mighty SOB found a long-term home at last?
Trade Rumors Persist For Dallas Stars' Steve Ott - Defending Big D Would this allow the Preds to upgrade at "agitator"?
KHL’s Brooklyn games are official, as Russian league official trashes MSG | Puck Daddy I don't think he's along in his criticism of Madison Square Garden.
The next step in hockey analytics | Backhand Shelf *drool*
Shot quality revisited: A look at the correlation between scoring chances and shot totals | NHLNumbers.com I've been extremely hesitant to jump on board the scoring chance bandwagon that built up over the last couple years, because it seemed like a ton of work for very little additional information. Whew!
Sure, it's a little anticlimactic after the release of the regular season schedule last week, but at least now we know when the Nashville Predators' pre-season games and training camp will take place.
An excerpt from the team's press release follows...
Follow @Forechecker
Nashville Predators President of Hockey Operations/General Manager David Poile announced today that the Predators will open their seven-game 2012 preseason schedule with a doubleheader at the BankAtlantic Center in Sunrise, Fla., for the second consecutive season on Monday, Sept. 24.
Nashville's preseason schedule includes a pair of home games: Tuesday, Sept. 25 against the Central Division rival St. Louis Blues and Saturday, Sept. 29 against the Carolina Hurricanes. Both games at Bridgestone Arena will start at 7 p.m. CT.
In addition to their doubleheader against the Florida Panthers, the Predators will travel to Raleigh to take on the Hurricanes for the seventh consecutive preseason (Sept. 28) and play their first preseason tilt at the Scottrade Center since 2003 on Oct. 2. Nashville will round out the seven-game slate on Oct. 5 at the Verizon Center in Washington.
The 2012-13 Nashville Predators rookie camp is scheduled to open Friday, Sept. 14, with veterans reporting on Friday, Sept. 21 for testing and physicals. The Predators' first day on the ice will be Saturday, Sept. 22 at the Centennial Sportsplex.
As the days count down to July 1, Nashville Predators fans are staring at the possibility (dare we say, probability?) that homegrown star Ryan Suter may sign with another team.
If indeed Suter heads off for greener pastures, what can the Predators do to provide a running mate for Shea Weber? Sure, there are younger players like Roman Josi working their way up through the ranks, but it's too early to expect one of them to take on that burden, logging heavy minutes against top opposition each night. You can't replace everything that a player like Suter brings to the table with one replacement, either, so there will be relative limitations with whoever ends up filling that spot.
So what sort of options might be out there if the Preds pursue a top-pair defenseman via free agency? Let's take a look at some candidates...
The table below highlights a few of the Unrestricted Free Agent defensemen I'd like to focus on. What I'm trying to zero in on here are guys who play on the left side against above-average competition, and have a positive effect on the flow of Shots For & Against.
The data, which includes source information from NHL Numbers and Behind the Net, shows the 5-on-5 ice time per game for each player, along with the balance of shifts they started in the Offensive vs. Defensive end of the ice (i.e., Jason Garrison got 57 more shifts starting in the offensive end than the defensive one), the Quality of Competition faced by each player, and their effect on their team's Corsi rating, once that Zone Start differential is taken into account***.
Player
Age
Team
Salary
($M)
TOI/60
Net Zone Starts
Corsi Rel QoC
Adjusted Corsi Rel/60
Jason Garrison
27
FLA
0.7
17.74
+57
+1.02
+8.26
Bryan Allen
31
CAR
3.2
16.27
-148
+1.01
+5.22
Sheldon Souray
35
DAL
1.7
15.51
-53
+1.16
+5.17
Carlo Colaiacovo
29
STL
2.5
15.88
0
+0.79
+3.90
Matt Carle
27
PHI
3.8
17.55
-9
+0.59
+3.78
Follow @Forechecker
Another good way to review what these defensemen did last season would be to review the Player Usage Charts featured here a few weeks ago.
Jason Garrison
Florida Panthers #52 - Defenseman
1984/11/13 27
6-2 218
White Rock, B.C., Canada
4
YEAR
TEAM
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
SHG
GWG
GTG
SOG
2011-12
Panthers
77
16
17
33
+6
32
9
0
3
0
168
Garrison is an unusual story, an undrafted player who has become quite the late bloomer. He's only had one particularly outstanding season so far, however, so a long-term contract may be a bit of a gamble. Defending Big D offers the following assessment:
The two biggest knocks against Jason Garrison are his physical game and lack of track record. Despite his size he isn't an overly physical player. When taking stock of the free agent market for defensemen a few weeks ago I compared Garrison to a younger Sheldon Souray. The difference between the two is that Garrison is a better skater while Souray is much more physical.
The lack of a high end physical game isn't necessarily a bad thing for Garrison. He's known to be very positionally sound. His game also keeps him out of the penalty box. In 2012 Garrison took 13 penalties at even strength which would have placed him third amongst the Stars defense corps, but in line with group as a whole.
I like the notion of a guy who can play tough opponents while not taking too many penalties. He played over 2:30 per game on both the power play and penalty kill as well, so there's some versatility to consider here, as well.
Bryan Allen
#5 / Defenseman / Carolina Hurricanes
6-5
226
Aug 21, 1980
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
2011 - Bryan Allen
1
13
14
-1
76
Allen took on a tough workload in Carolina, both in terms of personnel and positional matchups, and managed to hold up pretty well. He might complement Shea Weber as more of a "safety net" partner, holding back while allowing Weber to jump up and join the rush more often, as opposed to Suter who could handle the puck from zone to zone with aplomb. He can kill penalties, but isn't a power play option at all.
Sheldon Souray
#44 / Defenseman / Dallas Stars
6-4
233
Jul 13, 1976
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
2011 - Sheldon Souray
6
15
21
+11
73
"Studley Wonderbomb" enjoyed quite a comeback season after escaping the Edmonton Gulag, and you have to get a bit giddy over the supersonic slap shots which could come from either point from a Souray-Weber pairing. He's not the most disciplined defender, but he does play with a nasty physical style that the Predators lack sometimes (and would miss with Suter's departure).
The question with Souray may turn out to be what he's looking for contract-wise. As an over-35 player, going beyond one year carries risk, and supposedly he's already turned down a one-year $3 million offer from the Stars.
Carlo Colaiacovo
St. Louis Blues #28 - Defenseman
1983/01/27 29
6-1 200
Toronto, Ont, Canada
9
the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2001 (1st round)
YEAR
TEAM
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
SHG
GWG
GTG
SOG
2011-12
Blues
64
2
17
19
+7
22
0
0
2
0
68
Colaiacovo has been around the block a few times, and while not a leading offensive force, can fill a supporting role. He's not much of a penalty killer, and isn't a top PP guy, either, so help in those areas would have to come from elsewhere.
Matt Carle
#25 / Defenseman / Philadelphia Flyers
6-0
205
Sep 25, 1984
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
2011 - Matt Carle
4
34
38
+4
36
Carle is somewhat like Suter in that he delivers outstanding value while playing just outside the limelight enjoyed by higher-profile teammates. He can pile up the assists and fill in on both sides of the special teams battle, but the expectation is that he'll re-sign with Philadelphia instead of hitting the broader market.
No Easy Choices
When faced with these choices, which direction would you like to see the Predators take? Each of these players has strengths and limitations, so which might be best suited to fill Nashville's needs?
*** Adjusted Corsi Rel/60 = the player's Corsi Rating while on the ice, minus the team's rating when he's on the bench, adjusted for Net Zone Starts. For example, a guy who starts in the defensive zone a lot will have a low Corsi just due to his situation, so we adjust figures upward to compensate, and vice versa for those starting in the offensive end.
