Nashville Predators Goal Analysis: Vancouver and Detroit

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Wings_8

Note: My apologies for not posting this a few days ago, I overlooked the fact that it was ready. Enjoy anyway! - Dirk

February 22: Preds vs. Canucks (0-1)

Vancouver Goal: Dale Weise (1) from Maxim Lapierre (3) and Dan Hamhuis (9)

Nucks_1_medium

The Canucks are breaking into the zone, and the Preds' positioning could not look beautiful. They're perfectly set up. They’ve boxed Hamhuis in, which will force him to make a decision with the puck, Spals has the far-side winger covered, and Hustle and Gabby are ready to pick their covers once Hamhuis makes his move.

Nucks_2_medium

Let’s track where Spals and Weise go, Family Circus style, because that’s where the major breakdown happens. It’s pretty bad because it's pretty basic stuff.

Hamhuis makes it about half way in from the blue line without making a move. Hannan decides that he’s had enough, so he steps up and forces one. Hamhuis dumps the puck in to Maxim Lapierre, who scoots down low to pick it up. Klein will go with him. This is where the first big issue shows takes place.

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When Klein starts chasing Lapierre behind the net, he leaves the slot empty. Spaling is the center on this line, and as the center, his job is to help whoever needs help - whether it’s a winger engaged in a puck battle along the boards, or a defenseman who has been drawn into the corner. This is why playing center is so difficult, and why you often see younger guys like Colin Wilson and Craig Smith eased into the position; it’s an absolute ton of responsibility, and it requires a lot of attention, vision, communication, and speed (although speed is less of a requirement and more of a useful bonus-skill). So as the center, Spaling feels the need to cover for Klein in the slot. In doing so, however, he’s cutting ties with Weise, who will happily take advantage of not being covered. Spals is aware of this, as he’s looking right at Weise as he skates away. He's gonna do something about that, right?

Let’s play a quick game of Assumptions!

Assumption 1: Spals is going to communicate with Gabby and let him know that Weise is alone. It’s the most logical move, as Gabby is right there and not really busy doing anything else.

Assumption 2: Hannan is going to take Klein's spot at the front of the net.

Assumption 3: Spaling will go do something else once Hannan shows up, like go find an uncovered guy (maybe the one he left earlier?) or go help Klein pressure Lapierre or something.

Nucks_4_medium

…aaaand this is why you don’t assume.

Assumption 1: Clearly didn’t happen, because Gabby ain’t covering the guy he would be covering if Spals had communicated with him about said guy, and Weise is circling the zone all by his lonesome. This makes me think that Spals assumed that (1) Gabby knew what was happening with Weise, and (2) that Gabby would take care of Weise.

Assumption 2: Hannan leaves Hamhuis, who is heading back to the blue line, and heads to the front of the net to cover for Klein. Hamhuis is certainly still a possible threat, however, and therefore I understand why Gabby decides to cover him; not only is he open, but he's also the guy Gabby would normally be in charge of covering anyway. The other reason Gabby goes after Hamhuis is that he doesn't know about Weise, who has snuck down behind him.

Assumption 3: Not really sure what Spals is doing yet... Hannan appears to be looking over at him, so you'd think Spals would notice that Hannan is back and know that that he's no longer needed in the slot. There's no one there to cover anyway.

On a positive note, Hustle sees Lapierre zooming around the net, so he goes to cut off the passing lane to Tanev up at the blue line. Lapierre sees where Hustle is going, and he has three options. The first is that he can try to get the pass up to Tanev anyway (maybe bank the puck off the boards), the second is that he can try to shake Klein and look for another passing option (maybe behind the net to Weise), and the third is that he can try to get the puck towards the net.

Nucks_5_medium

Lapierre goes for the third option: putting the puck on net. He and Klein are both righties, so when he turns sharply and faces Klein, their sticks are opposite each other. Klein isn't going to be able to poke the puck away from Lapierre very easily, and Lapierre can get a relatively uninterrupted shot at the net. Weise still doesn't know whether Lapierre is going to pass him the puck or take a shot. To cover both possibilities, he hovers between the boards and the goal, making sure he can easily get to either one as quickly as possible.

Meanwhile, Gabby, Spals, and Hannan are all sorta piled up in the slot. Hannan is in the slot and he's doing his job. Gabby sees Hamhuis heading up to the point and knows that Kassian, who was covering for Hamhuis, is coming into the zone, so he goes after him. Job well done. Spals, however... Spals is in trouble. There's pretty much no reason for him to still be there anymore. He's not helping anyone or anything. I don't know if he sees Gabby (who's slightly behind him at this point), but I assume he still thinks that Gabby is covering Weise? Who knows. Either way, Spals needs to be doing something that isn't standing around in the slot. He hasn't even looked to see what's going on in the zone beyond of Lapierre. He should probably do that.

Nucks_6_medium

Back to Lapierre. He spins a 180 and flings the puck on net, and it deflects off of someone (can't tell if it's Hannan or Pekka). That deflection causes the puck to bounce across the unguarded crease.

Spals now realizes where Weise has been.

Nucks_7_medium

Here we have Weise scoring on a very open net. It's a relatively uncharacteristic mistake for Spals, but it's still a really bad mistake. How often do you see one guy floating around his offensive zone like that? It simply can't happen.

The video angle I chose for the pictures is the replay, not the initial shot, so hang tight until the second half of the highlight.

February 23: Preds vs. Red Wings (0-4)

Wings Goal: Drew Miller (2) from Nikals Kronwall (10) and Patrick Eaves (3)

For those of you who want to see evidence of our big no-no defensive mistakes, here you go. You also get to see Spals playing center correctly, so this a nice little comparison to the first goal.

Wings_1_medium

Detroit is breaking into the Preds' zone, and Drew Miller has the puck along the boards. Ryan Ellis is pretty effectively preventing him from taking a direct shot on goal, so Miller decides to flip the puck into the middle of the zone towards a speeding Patrick Eaves (and Nick Spaling) instead.

If you check out Scott Hannan's body positioning right now, you can see that it looks a little weird; he's facing the boards, not looking up ice like Ellis. Here's why: one second earlier, Spals was still hauling his butt out of the Wings' zone and Patrick Eaves was more alone, so Hannan skated backwards towards him to make sure he couldn't come into the zone uncontested. When Spals catches up to Eaves, Hannan transitions back to watching Miller and Andersson, which causes him to lose a stride on Eaves (which you'll see in the next picture). So that's why he's a bit behind in the next frame, and that's why it's okay that he's a bit behind.

Wings_2_medium

Spaling's job right now is to be absolutely sure that Patrick Eaves does not get full control of the puck and does not put it on net. You can't see it in a screen cap, but the puck takes a weird bounce pretty high up into the air. This luckily prevents Eaves from getting a clean shot, but he's still able to get the puck at the net.

Wings_3_medium

While Spals, Eaves, and Rinne smack the puck around a bit, and the puck pops out towards the corner. Andersson heads after the puck. Ellis sees that Andersson doesn't have a buddy, so he tags along. Unlike the Vancouver game, Spals is keeping tabs on his guy and is going to stick with him as long as he can.

Wings_4_medium

Andersson gets to the puck first, so Ellis positions his body to try to cut off any big passing lanes. My guess is that Andersson probably would have passed the puck up the boards here if the ref wasn't in the way, because Ellis wouldn't be able to get his stick across his body quickly enough to stop it. However, because the ref is in the way, Andersson reverses the puck for Eaves.

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Ellis had stepped up on Andersson, so he finishes his check (good boy, HRS). Eaves and Spals head after the puck. Miller curls into the zone. A communication error takes place.

Hannan and Hustle are currently the only guys in this scene without someone to cover, so one of them needs to be on top of Miller. At this immediate moment in the screen shot, Miller is still up for grabs. That shouldn't be the case for very long, however, as either Hannan or Hustle needs to pick him up (hence the dashed arrows).

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The tough part about screen capping highlights is that you can't always see everything that's happening. This is one of those moments. Eaves and Spaling are rounding the net, Hannan is heading across the crease to cut them off, Miller is just standing there, and I don't know where Hustle is. I know Hannan wants to make sure Eaves can't cut to the net, but as a defenseman, your biggest concern is typically watching for the pass to the guy in the slot. Miller is that guy.

Wings_7_medium

I cut a few seconds out because nothing exciting happens other than Eaves deciding to pass the puck up to his defenseman, Nick Kronwall. Spals leaves Eaves and hurries up to block as much of Kronwall's shot as possible. Hustle is playing the weak-side wing well. He will be able to pressure Other Dude if Kronwall passes him the puck, so Kronwall likely won't do that. Hustle is quite effectively limiting Kronwall's options. Remember how weak-side wing positioning came up with Sergei last time? Well, this is about where Sergei should have been standing.

Ellis has Andersson, and I assume Hannan has Miller? He should, because no one else is there.

Kronwall takes the shot.

Wings_8_medium

Rinne makes the initial save, and the puck is kicked out to the side. What happens next is something I've been frustrated with recently: Hannan doesn't topple Miller. Look, I know NHL dudes are big and solid, and I don't actually expect him to put him on his ass, but for God's sake, don't let the guy just stand there and whack the puck in the net! Plow into him. Knock him off balance. Get really low and explode up into his armpit/chest area. Don't let him just put the puck in like that. It's a weak goal, not because of what Miller did, but because it was so preventable.

Just flatten the guy. It's your crease/goal area, not his.

Get. Him. Out.

Watch here:

Sunday Dump & Chase: Preds Looking For Answers Within

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Note: Spend today surveying the latest articles in the FanPost section, as we have a number of prospective OTF writers taking the platform for a spin.

Nashville Predators News

Nashville Predators can't make forward progress | The Tennessean
There is disappointment across the board when you survey the forwards, and it doesn't sound like any of the injured will return for the next couple games.

Hornqvist, Gill progressing with injuries - Predators Insider
The last paragraph here is a wonderfully ridiculous example of the NHL's trademark secrecy regarding injuries.

That Dragon's Not Breathing Fire - Nucks Misconduct
W. Brett Wilson, minority owner of the Predators, was frustrated enough during Thursday's loss at Vancouver to fire off a really unfortunate tweet, and our comrades at Nucks Misconduct called him out for it.

Scott Hannan Has Been A Poor Fit With The Nashville Predators | Predlines
Yeah, this really hasn't worked out well.

Nashville Predators At The Tipping Point | Predlines
The last two games of this road trip are pretty darned big...

Hellberg And Special Teams Key Admirals To Fourth Straight Win | Admirals Roundtable
At least Milwaukee is getting on a roll.

Around the Wide Wide World of Hockey

NHL Saturday: Toronto loses marathon shootout to Jets - SBNation.com
It was a wild night of action, including a sick Patrick Kane spin-o-rama goal as Chicago blew out Dallas 8-1.

Nashville Predators @ Edmonton Oilers Game 29 Preview - The Copper & Blue
Here's to hoping the Oilers keep up their trust in Mike Brown.

Duhatschek: Jarome Iginla to the Kings? Not so fast - The Globe and Mail
Eric Duhatschek takes a wide-ranging tour of teams and players that might be busy at the Trade Deadline.

Officiating will be hot topic at NHL meeting | Hockey | Sports | Toronto Sun
Yeah, I'm guessing that David Poile will have a gripe or two about the officials at this week's GM meetings.

Springing Malik: The Pain Game 2013 - Second Quarter Report
Have the Predators been stricken by injury more severely than other teams?

Post-Realignment "Midwest" Division Preview - Mile High Hockey
Behold, your new division for 2013-2014...

Phoenix Coyotes Sign Oliver Ekman-Larsson to 6-Year Contract Extension - Five For Howling
Six years, $33 million for the 21-year-old Swedish phenom.

Which NHL teams are basically screwed if they’re trailing into third period? | Puck Daddy
I'll bet you can guess one team listed here...

The Pink Puck | Even if you wear pink, you can still rock the rink!
Good luck to this new site, which is written by & for lady hockey fans.

Larry Brooks’ Slap Shots: NHL realignment plan will hurt 80 percent of league - NYPOST.com
Those poor, poor Eastern Conference teams are going to have to travel more, sobs Larry Brooks.

Carolina Hurricanes acquire Adam Hall on waivers from Tampa Bay Lightning - Canes Country
The former Predator bounces around the Southeast Division.

Official junior hockey Twitter account blames poor season on being "too drunk and high" - Awful Announcing
Like, wow man.

Down Goes Brown: A quick book update
Good news! The Best of Down Goes Brown is back in stock, and you can order it via Amazon.

Nashville Predators @ Edmonton Oilers Preview: Fighting For Their Playoff Lives

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The Stats

Nashville Predators Edmonton Oilers
Record 11-11-6 20th 10-11-6 25th
GF/Game 2.25 28th 2.37 25th
GA/Game 2.46 8th 2.85 21st
5-on-5 SF/60 23.2 30th 28.1 17th
5-on-5 SA/60 26.0 6th 32.2 30th
Fenwick Close 45.92 25th 45.67 26th
5-on-5 Save % .918 13th .921 10th
5-on-4 GF/60 6.3 13th 8.1 6th
# of PP's/Gm 3.18 26th 3.96 4th
4-on-5 GA/60 7.5 26th 5.8 11th
# of PK's/Gm 3.32 8th 4.07 27th

You know these are strange days when the Oilers have better goaltending numbers in 5-on-5 play than Nashville. While both teams tend to get out-shot, Edmonton plays a more up-tempo type of game, with more action going each than in a typical Predators contest. A key for Nashville will be to stay out of the penalty box and avoid giving a talented bunch of Oilers too many opportunities on the power play.

Stay Calm, and check out the OTF T-Shirt Store!

Edmonton Oilers

While their playoff hopes are fading, the Oilers do still have a glimmer of hope, particularly if they can beat the Predators tonight, which would pull them alongside Nashville for 10th in the West, while holding a game in hand. Five points out of their last three games (including a 6-5 win at Chicago last Sunday) has rekindled a bit of optimism in Alberta.

Per our brethren at Copper & Blue, here's how the Edmonton lineup should look:

FORWARDS

LW C RW
Taylor Hall Shawn Horcoff Ales Hemsky
Magnus Paajarvi Sam Gagner Nail Yakupov
Ryan Jones Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Jordan Eberle
Mike Brown Ryan Smyth Lennart Petrell

DEFENSE

LD RD
Ladislav Smid Jeff Petry
Nick Schultz Corey Potter
Ryan Whitney Justin Schultz

GOALTENDER


G

Devan Dubnyk

One has to wonder (well, not really) if Mike Brown will go for another dance with Rich Clune, building on their March 8 dust-up in Nashville:


Nashville Predators

We all know the story with the Predators these days. Back-to-back blowout losses have turned the mood sour lately, and right now it's hard to say where the leadership will come from to help this team re-establish its identity as a defensively sound, always-competitive group.

For the moment, we may need to look to youth. Your goal-scoring leader these days is Gabriel Bourque, whose game-breaking speed is a handle for an opponent to deal with:


Gabriel Bourque

#57 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators

5-10

192

Mar 04, 1989



GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG
SOG PCT
2012 - Gabriel Bourque 26 9 2 11 +4 4 3 1 2 37 24.3

Sure, I don't expect his Kostitsyn-like shooting percentage to remain at such lofty levels, but at this point, you look for hope where you can.

As far as the lineup goes, Josh Cooper reports that the D pairing of Ryan Ellis and Scott Hannan is due to be split up, and that Jonathon Blum will get back in, but at whose expense? All eyes will be watching as game time approaches.


Western Standings

GP W-L-OT Pts
Chicago Blackhawks 28 23-2-3 49
Anaheim Ducks 27 20-3-4 44
Minnesota Wild 27 15-10-2 32
St. Louis Blues 28 16-10-2 34
Detroit Red Wings 29 14-10-5 33
Los Angeles Kings 27 15-10-2 32
Vancouver Canucks 27 13-8-6 32
San Jose Sharks 27 12-9-6 30
Phoenix Coyotes 28 13-11-4 30
Nashville Predators 28 11-11-6 28
Columbus Blue Jackets 29 11-12-6 28
Dallas Stars 27 12-12-3 27
Calgary Flames 26 11-11-4 26
Edmonton Oilers 27 10-11-6 26
Colorado Avalanche 27 10-13-4 24

Nashville Predators @ Calgary Flames: Game Coverage

Saturday, March 16, 2013

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There's no time to fret over last night's 7-4 loss at Vancouver, as the Predators get right back to work tonight at Calgary (8:00 p.m. Central on FS-TN).

The Stats

Nashville Predators Calgary Flames
Record 11-10-6 19th 10-11-4 25th
GF/Game 2.22 29th 2.76 14th
GA/Game 2.33 4th 3.24 28th
5-on-5 SF/60 23.3 30th 28.6 13th
5-on-5 SA/60 26.0 6th 28.5 16th
Fenwick Close 46.25 24th 51.67 12th
5-on-5 Save % .931 4th .886 29th
5-on-4 GF/60 5.7 17th 6.9 9th
# of PP's/Gm 3.22 26th 3.60 19th
4-on-5 GA/60 8.0 28th 7.4 23rd
# of PK's/Gm 3.33 7th 3.12 3rd

These two teams aren't exactly the cream of the NHL's crop, but if the game stays mostly at 5-on-5 Nashville's goaltending could make the difference. Both teams take relatively few penalties and don't draw many from their opponents, so there's hope on that front.

The Preds return home to face Calgary in a rematch on Thursday - take the OTF Discount and save money on tickets!

Calgary Flames

When it comes to making the playoffs, it looks Feaster Famine once again in Calgary. SportsClubStats gives the Flames just a 14.2 percent chance of qualifying for the post-season right now, and they've recently scraped the bottom of the Western Conference standings (now held by Colorado). Dark times, indeed:

The Flames' loss to the Kings on Saturday night combined with the Blue Jacket's sudden resurgence and the Oilers' unlikely win over the Chicago Blackhawks today have put the Flames in last place in the Western Conference. The Flames and Oilers have an identical -16 goal differential, although Edmonton has played two more games than Calgary has. Tomorrow's game against the Kings marks the halfway point of the season for the Flames, and with the team being six points out of a playoff spot and the trade deadline quickly approaching, time is running out for Hartley and Co. to right the ship.

But the question of whether or not it would be best just to let the said ship sink remains unanswered by anyone in the organization.

--- Matchsticks & Gasoline

As that ship sinks, should the captain make a getaway? All eyes are on Jarome Iginla, to see if Calgary decides to cash in their chips and send him somewhere to compete for a Stanley Cup in exchange for picks & prospects, since it doesn't look like the Flames are going to be a contender any time soon:


Jarome Iginla

#12 / Right Wing / Calgary Flames

6-1

207

Jul 01, 1977



GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG
SOG PCT
2012 - Jarome Iginla 25 7 12 19 -4 15 1 0 1 84 8.3

Nashville Predators

What sort of team will we see tonight? The one that shut out Dallas on Tuesday, or the one which gave up seven goals to Vancouver last night?

What we do know is that Pekka Rinne will be back in goal, and he'll look to bounce back with a dominating performance.

Up front, the hot hand of late might actually belong to a guy who's caught a lot of flak this season:


David Legwand

#11 / Center / Nashville Predators

6-2

204

Aug 17, 1980



GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG
SOG PCT
2012 - David Legwand 27 5 7 12 0 10 2 0 0 38 13.2

Leggy has been flat-out awful this season, but he is riding a four-game point scoring streak into tonight's contest. Yes, it includes that fluke half-ice goal against Edmonton last Friday, but on an offenisvely-challenged team like the Predators, beggars can't be choosers.

So what do you think? Can Legwand ride to the rescue tonight? The puck drops at 8:00 p.m. Central, so make sure to come back for the Game Thread...

Nashville Predators @ Calgary Flames Preview: Out of the Frying Pan...

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The Stats

Nashville Predators Calgary Flames
Record 11-10-6 19th 10-11-4 25th
GF/Game 2.22 29th 2.76 14th
GA/Game 2.33 4th 3.24 28th
5-on-5 SF/60 23.3 30th 28.6 13th
5-on-5 SA/60 26.0 6th 28.5 16th
Fenwick Close 46.25 24th 51.67 12th
5-on-5 Save % .931 4th .886 29th
5-on-4 GF/60 5.7 17th 6.9 9th
# of PP's/Gm 3.22 26th 3.60 19th
4-on-5 GA/60 8.0 28th 7.4 23rd
# of PK's/Gm 3.33 7th 3.12 3rd

These two teams aren't exactly the cream of the NHL's crop, but if the game stays mostly at 5-on-5 Nashville's goaltending could make the difference. Both teams take relatively few penalties and don't draw many from their opponents, so there's hope on that front.

The Preds return home to face Calgary in a rematch on Thursday - take the OTF Discount and save money on tickets!

Calgary Flames

When it comes to making the playoffs, it looks Feaster Famine once again in Calgary. SportsClubStats gives the Flames just a 14.2 percent chance of qualifying for the post-season right now, and they've recently scraped the bottom of the Western Conference standings (now held by Colorado). Dark times, indeed:

The Flames' loss to the Kings on Saturday night combined with the Blue Jacket's sudden resurgence and the Oilers' unlikely win over the Chicago Blackhawks today have put the Flames in last place in the Western Conference. The Flames and Oilers have an identical -16 goal differential, although Edmonton has played two more games than Calgary has. Tomorrow's game against the Kings marks the halfway point of the season for the Flames, and with the team being six points out of a playoff spot and the trade deadline quickly approaching, time is running out for Hartley and Co. to right the ship.

But the question of whether or not it would be best just to let the said ship sink remains unanswered by anyone in the organization.

--- Matchsticks & Gasoline

As that ship sinks, should the captain make a getaway? All eyes are on Jarome Iginla, to see if Calgary decides to cash in their chips and send him somewhere to compete for a Stanley Cup in exchange for picks & prospects, since it doesn't look like the Flames are going to be a contender any time soon:


Jarome Iginla

#12 / Right Wing / Calgary Flames

6-1

207

Jul 01, 1977



GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG
SOG PCT
2012 - Jarome Iginla 25 7 12 19 -4 15 1 0 1 84 8.3

Nashville Predators

What sort of team will we see tonight? The one that shut out Dallas on Tuesday, or the one which gave up seven goals to Vancouver last night?

What we do know is that Pekka Rinne will be back in goal, and he'll look to bounce back with a dominating performance.

Up front, the hot hand of late might actually belong to a guy who's caught a lot of flak this season:


David Legwand

#11 / Center / Nashville Predators

6-2

204

Aug 17, 1980



GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG
SOG PCT
2012 - David Legwand 27 5 7 12 0 10 2 0 0 38 13.2

Leggy has been flat-out awful this season, but he is riding a four-game point scoring streak into tonight's contest. Yes, it includes that fluke half-ice goal against Edmonton last Friday, but on an offenisvely-challenged team like the Predators, beggars can't be choosers.

So what do you think? Can Legwand ride to the rescue tonight? The puck drops at 8:00 p.m. Central, so make sure to come back for the Game Thread...

Calgary Flames 6, Nashville Predators 3: Pekka Rinne Pulled Again

It's been a bad couple days for the Nashville Predators, giving up a total of 13 goals and watching Pekka Rinne get pulled from consecutive starts. Needing points to keep pace in the Western Conference standings, the Preds instead dropped a stinker tonight in Calgary, losing 6-3.

Curtis Glencross completed a hat trick with an empty net goal in the final minute, finishing off a fun night for the home crowd. Five Flames had multi-point nights, and Miikka Kiprusoff had a pretty easy night to push his record to 5-5-2. For Calgary, it was their sixth straight home victory.

For Nashville, they move on to Edmonton Sunday night, hoping to find a formula that yields a win.

Random Observations

  • Sergei Kostitsyn scratched? Bestill my beating heart... it's about time somebody relatively high-up on the depth chart was made to sit, but he wouldn't be my first choice.
  • I couldn't blame Pekka Rinne if he's frustrated these days, but you have to think he'll be chomping at the bit to get back in there Sunday at Edmonton.
  • So who else was pumped to see David Legwand keep his point streak alive with that late goal? Just me, eh? OK.
  • I know many will question the constant jumbling of the forward lines tonight, but at some point there's a certain amount of sense in it. When playing with new linemates, players concentrate on doing the basics and communicating, which is probably where the Predators need to start when trying to piece things back together right now.
  • I can't remember seeing Barry Trotz quite so exasperated as he seemed during his intermission interview tonight. Will change come about over the weekend?

Boxscore - Game Summary - Event Summary

Roll the video highlights...


And your advanced stats...

Nashville Predators

Player Pos ES TOI Total Shots For Total Shots Against Corsi Net Zone Starts Adjusted Corsi
Mike Fisher C 17:49 11 15 -4 +2 -5
Martin Erat R 17:04 10 15 -5 +2 -6
Craig Smith C 15:36 13 18 -5 +2 -6
Nick Spaling C 14:51 12 11 +1 +2 +0
Gabriel Bourque L 14:34 9 12 -3 0 -3
David Legwand C 13:58 11 7 +4 +1 +4
Bobby Butler R 13:42 9 6 +3 +1 +3
Zach Boychuk L 13:34 13 10 +3 +3 +2
Matt Halischuk R 13:23 12 18 -6 +2 -7
Brandon Yip R 8:46 10 11 -1 +1 -1
Rich Clune L 7:26 6 9 -3 0 -3
Chris Mueller C 7:08 8 7 +1 -1 +1
Shea Weber D 19:35 13 22 -9 +4 -11
Kevin Klein D 19:10 16 15 +1 +1 +1
Victor Bartley D 18:58 18 15 +3 0 +3
Roman Josi D 18:31 13 17 -4 +4 -6
Ryan Ellis D 16:05 13 12 +1 0 +1
Scott Hannan D 12:23 9 11 -2 +1 -2

Calgary Flames

Player Pos ES TOI Total Shots For Total Shots Against Corsi Net Zone Starts Adjusted Corsi
Jarome Iginla R 16:04 17 9 +8 -1 +8
Alex Tanguay L 15:57 16 11 +5 -1 +5
Matt Stajan C 15:56 16 18 -2 -3 -1
Mike Cammalleri L 15:21 14 8 +6 -1 +6
Lee Stempniak R 14:40 14 16 -2 -2 -1
Curtis Glencross L 14:23 12 15 -3 -2 -2
Mikael Backlund C 13:37 10 8 +2 -1 +2
Jiri Hudler C 13:31 9 9 0 -1 +0
Blake Comeau L 13:23 9 10 -1 -1 -1
Tim Jackman R 8:33 7 6 +1 -1 +1
Brian Mcgrattan R 7:57 8 6 +2 -1 +2
Steve Begin L 7:23 6 7 -1 0 -1
Jay Bouwmeester D 24:29 18 20 -2 -6 +0
TJ Brodie D 21:37 14 17 -3 -4 -1
Dennis Wideman D 17:50 18 15 +3 -1 +3
Mark Giordano D 16:48 18 13 +5 +1 +5
Chris Butler D 12:09 13 8 +5 0 +5
Derek Smith D 11:47 11 9 +2 0 +2

Can the Nashville Predators Live Up to Raised Expectations?

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On the latest episode of the 303:30, a bloggers roundtable considered the question of whether David Poile and Barry Trotz need to worry about their jobs, given the disappointing results we've seen this season. Rather than following up last season's success with a run for the Central Division title, the Predators are fighting for a chance to even make the playoffs, something more like what we experienced in 2008 or 2009.

After advancing to the second round of the playoffs each of the least two seasons, anything less than that will be seen as a setback, but are things so desperate that heads need to roll down Broadway any time soon?

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

Sometimes, the mood among fans can change awfully quickly. Ryan Porth of Smashville 24/7 chimed in during the roundtable with "this cycle of mediocrity has to come to an end at some point. Poile has to get this team to the top or someone else is going to have to do it. Trotz is going to have to get this team to the top or someone else is going to have to do it" (as quoted by Jeremy at Section303.com).

Yet only last month, he was touting the Predators as The "It" Team In The "It" City:

Every spring the team inches closer to a Stanley Cup, while Smashville has become "the place to be" in this city 41 nights a year. There also is a substantial "it" factor that has people coming back, just like the city itself. When they experience a Predators game for the first time, they get lost in the atmosphere and the music and the game and the entertainment - and suddenly, there's no looking back. They're hooked.

"My wife and I found something to be invested in with the team - not only financially, but emotionally and socially. We've made lifelong friends because of our love of the team," Delph said.

The city caught Preds Fever during the 2011 playoffs - the franchise's breakthrough moment - and it hasn't let go.

That's quite an about-face, in just a matter of a few weeks. Have things really turned so quickly for the worse? Or has the recent stretch of poor play suddenly cast a different light on the last several years?

The difficult thing to accept is that when it comes to hockey teams, even ones with a number of young players working their way up the learning curve (Colin Wilson, Craig Smith, Gabriel Bourque, Roman Josi, etc.), progress is rarely a straight-line process. There are setbacks and reversals of fortune, but that doesn't necessarily mean you react to those by changing the leadership.

Why David Poile Should, Or Shouldn't, Go

If the owners really wanted to fire David Poile, they could certainly find reasons - the long-running inability to attract or develop top offensive talent, the handling of Ryan Suter (who walked away for nothing) and/or Shea Weber (whose last two contracts were determined by an NHL arbitrator and the Philadelphia Flyers instead of the Preds), and the obvious absence of any banners hanging from the rafters at Bridgestone Arena.

Although Barry Trotz recently opined that "offense can win you games, but defense can win you championships", this team which is so famously dedicated to defense hasn't ever won a championship, whether for the Central Division, Western Conference, or of course the Stanley Cup.

There are many positives to Poile's tenure that don't stand out so starkly, but are invaluable to the stability of the franchise, however - a drafting & development system that continues to crank out elite homegrown talent on defense and in goal, and a deep-rooted organizational culture that is committed to "the Predator Way". Whether you're down with that philosophy or not, the fact that it is consistently applied from Nashville through Milwaukee is an organizational strength that pays off when injury strikes and guys have to be called up.

Simply put, even if David Poile were given his walking papers, a true cultural change wouldn't come about without a much more thorough turnover.

Is that what's needed?

Can David Poile & Co. Get the Job Done?

Anyone who has read OTF over the years knows that I'm critical of the Predators' leadership on occasion. For a long time they reserved a roster spot for a designated fighter who can't take a regular shift, and often eschew offensive specialists in favor of hard-working pluggers whose best work is done along the boards, rather than near the net. With the Paul Gaustad contract, the team is now paying thrice as much as what they used to for guys who delivered similar results, like Jerred Smithson and Scott Nichol.

That said, I do believe that this group is capable of hanging banners at Bridgestone Arena. They had a decent chance of doing that last season, boasting the richest collection of offensive talent seen here since 2007 during the playoffs, before they shot themselves in the foot with the whole Radulov/Kostitsyn affair. In the short term, they have some real difficulties to work through given the high cost of the Weber & Rinne contracts (for years, the Preds thrived on cheap but top-notch goaltending & D, but it's not cheap any more).

If you judge a leadership group by saying anything less than winning the Stanley Cup is a failure, you're likely to be sorely disappointed for decades at a time. With 30 teams in the league, even an average team is doing well to win once in a generation. In 3 of the last 7 seasons, however (2007, 2010, 2012) the Preds had a good shot at a Central Division, Western Conference, or Stanley Cup championship. Many other teams around the league (some with the greatest resources available to them, too) haven't come close to that kind of opportunity.

Make no mistake, however, the pressure to succeed going forward will be higher than it has been in the past. When it comes to growing the business of the Nashville Predators, the first step (as frequently mentioned by CEO Jeff Cogen) is to fill the building. The team is now doing that with regularity, boasting of a 25-game sellout streak.

The next step, once an expectation of ticket scarcity starts to set in among Nashville sports fans, is to raise prices. That will be a tough sell if the team doesn't have any genuine accomplishments to show off, although the team is doing such a great job marketing these days that a good portion of the crowd is there simply for the event experience rather than living & dying with the on-ice results. My guess is that the portion of the fan base that would stop buying tickets if the team doesn't make the playoffs is very, very small.

Can David Poile & Barry Trotz raise banners at Bridgestone Arena in the years ahead? That's the question of the day, and I'd like to get your thoughts on that in the comments below. In the meantime, make sure you head over and listen to the latest 303:30, it's sure to get you thinking...